The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected that the value of global trade of goods would reach $6.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2021.
In its global trade report, UNCTAD stated that global trade recovery hit a record high in the first quarter of 2021, growing by 10 percent year-over-year and 4 percent quarter-over-quarter.
It noted that East Asian economies stimulated the impressive rebound after effectively containing the COVID-19 pandemic early on, stepping in as providers of COVID-19-related products.
“Global trade has recorded a faster recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic than in the last two trade recessions,” according to a UNCTAD economist, Alessandro Nicita.
Nicita said that global economies slogged through four quarters of economic lull before bounding into pre-recession levels.
He added that the fifth quarter – Q1 2021 – saw global trade rise beyond its pre-pandemic crisis, with a 3 percent increase compared to Q4 2019.
Countries whose economies thrived in Q1 2021 relative to other economies are China, South Africa, and India, according to the report.
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Citing China’s export growth, the report said that the Asian economic giant recorded a “strong increase” from 2020 averages and “in relation to pre-pandemic levels”.
Unbalanced Global Trade
The report stated that trade recovery for developing countries, in particular, remained uneven while East Asian countries reported a quick recovery.
For countries whose economies are in transition – countries in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia – the value of exports fell below averages in Q1 2021.
“Trade growth is expected to remain stronger for East Asia and developed countries, while still lagging for many other countries,” it said.
Sustained growth would depend on the easing of restrictions set by governments globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Nevertheless, fiscal stimulus packages, particularly in developed countries, are expected to strongly support the global trade recovery throughout 2021.”
“The value of global trade should also rise due to positive trends across commodity prices,” the report added.
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