KEY POINTS
- Lagos recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 34.40 per cent in September 2026, followed by Imo and Ondo.
- Taraba recorded negative food inflation of 7.47 per cent, meaning food prices were lower than a year earlier.
- AFAN President Mohammed Magaji attributed rising food prices despite the harvest season to higher transportation costs.
- The National Bureau of Statistics cautioned that differences in state consumption baskets can make direct comparisons misleading.
MAIN STORY
Higher transportation costs are contributing to rising food prices across several Nigerian states despite the ongoing harvest season, according to the President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Mohammed Magaji.
Magaji’s explanation comes as state-level data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show wide differences in food inflation across the country, with Lagos, Imo and Ondo recording the highest annual increases in September 2026, while Taraba, Yobe and Borno recorded the lowest rates.
The NBS Consumer Price Index report for September, released on October 15, showed that food inflation in Lagos reached 34.40 per cent year-on-year, the highest among the states. Imo followed at 33.79 per cent, while Ondo recorded 31.49 per cent.
Lagos also recorded the country’s highest food price index at 178.0, against a base period of 2024 set at 100. Rivers followed at 168.1, while Oyo recorded 165.5, indicating relatively high food price levels in the three states under the index.
At the other end of the scale, Taraba recorded negative food inflation of 7.47 per cent, indicating that its measured food prices were lower than in September 2025. Yobe recorded negative 0.37 per cent, while Borno’s food inflation stood at 2.18 per cent.
The NBS cautioned that consumption baskets differ across states, meaning the items and spending patterns used to calculate inflation are not identical. As a result, state-level inflation rates should not be interpreted as perfectly comparable measures of the cost of living.
Speaking to PUNCH by telephone, Magaji said transportation costs were the main reason food prices were increasing in some locations. He explained that the effect depended on the distance between production areas and the markets where food was sold.
“I said this is because the cost of transportation has increased. That’s the only reason, nothing more than this. Nothing more than this,” Magaji said.
He noted that prices could remain relatively stable in states where food commodities were produced because they would not have to travel as far to reach consumers. Where transportation costs increased, the effect on prices could therefore be smaller.
“Most of the production is being made in Taraba and other states here in the North. So if it is being made in your state, the price may not increase. If there’s any increase in transportation, the increase will just be very minimal. That’s the reason,” he said.
Magaji cited Gombe, Bauchi and other locations in northern Nigeria as areas that received food supplies from Taraba. He added that Taraba typically harvested certain crops earlier than other states, making it an important source of produce for neighbouring markets.
The figures highlight how food prices can move differently across Nigeria even during the harvest season. Areas that produce particular commodities may benefit from shorter supply routes, while markets that depend on food transported from distant farming communities may face higher distribution costs.
THE ISSUES
The state-level figures suggest that the cost of moving food from farms to markets is an important factor in how prices vary geographically. However, the figures alone do not establish transportation costs as the sole cause of the differences in food inflation.
For consumers, higher transport expenses can add to the price of food even when harvests increase supply. For farmers and traders, the cost of moving produce can affect the amount they receive, the price retailers charge and the profitability of supplying distant markets.
Taraba’s negative food inflation also illustrates why national or state averages require careful interpretation. Lower measured food prices in a producing state do not necessarily mean that every household there can afford food, while a high inflation rate does not mean that every food item has risen by the same amount.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“I said this is because the cost of transportation has increased. That’s the only reason, nothing more than this. Nothing more than this.” – Mohammed Magaji, President, All Farmers Association of Nigeria
“Most of the production is being made in Taraba and other states here in the North. So if it is being made in your state, the price may not increase. If there’s any increase in transportation, the increase will just be very minimal. That’s the reason.” – Mohammed Magaji, President, All Farmers Association of Nigeria
WHAT’S NEXT
The extent to which food prices ease will depend partly on how efficiently produce moves from farming areas to consumer markets. Monitoring transport costs alongside harvest volumes and state-level price movements will help clarify whether lower prices in some producing areas translate into relief for consumers elsewhere.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s food inflation figures vary sharply by state, with Lagos recording the highest annual increase and Taraba registering a decline. AFAN President Mohammed Magaji attributes some of these differences to transportation costs, which can increase the price of food in markets far from where it is produced.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index report for September 2026, and comments by AFAN President Mohammed Magaji to PUNCH.
