KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s imported food price index rose by 9.19 per cent year on year in September 2026, down from 12.83 per cent in August.
- Monthly growth slowed to 0.07 per cent, compared with 0.89 per cent in August.
- Nigeria spent ₦3.30 trillion on food and beverage imports in the first half of 2026, according to Nairametrics.
- Headline inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September, while monthly food inflation turned negative.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria’s imported food price growth slowed to 9.19 per cent in September 2026, its lowest level since March, as annual and monthly increases in the imported food price index eased, calculations based on the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data show.
The imported food price index rose to 135.5 in September from 124.1 in the corresponding month of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.19 per cent. This was lower than the 12.83 per cent recorded in August and the 14.60 per cent peak reached in May.
On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 0.07 per cent in September, down from 0.89 per cent in August and 1.21 per cent in July. The figures indicate that imported food prices continued to rise, but at a considerably slower pace.
The annual growth rate has declined steadily since May, falling to 13.62 per cent in June, 13.25 per cent in July and 12.83 per cent in August before reaching 9.19 per cent in September.
However, the slowdown does not mean imported food has become cheaper overall. The index climbed from 120.0 in January to 135.5 in September, indicating that the price level remained elevated despite the moderation in its rate of increase.
The trend comes amid Nigeria’s continued expenditure on imported food and beverages. Nairametrics previously reported that the country spent ₦3.30 trillion on food and beverage imports in the first half of 2026, with spending increasing sharply in the second quarter.
The country’s reliance on imported food remains a concern as households face affordability pressures and the government seeks to expand domestic agricultural production. Nigeria’s exposure to imported food prices also means that changes in international prices, exchange rates and import costs can influence the cost of food sold locally.
Domestic agricultural challenges add to the pressure. Insecurity, high production costs and post-harvest losses have threatened output, while farmers in parts of the North-Central and North-West have reportedly considered leaving the sector because of the difficulties involved in farming.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has also warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the next lean season, highlighting the continuing risks to food access even as some inflation indicators improve.
The latest imported food figures coincide with a broader slowdown in Nigeria’s inflation rate. Headline inflation declined to 14.63 per cent in September from 15.39 per cent in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of moderation.
According to the NBS, annual food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent in September, compared with 20.16 per cent in September 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation fell to minus 1.55 per cent in September from 1.02 per cent in August, a decline of 2.57 percentage points.
The different indicators measure different aspects of price movements. While the imported food price index tracks price changes associated with imported food, the broader food inflation measure reflects price movements across food items in the consumer basket. Their simultaneous moderation suggests that price pressures have eased across several measures, but does not establish that food affordability has returned to previous levels.
THE ISSUES
Slower imported food price growth could reduce the pace at which import-related costs increase for businesses and consumers. However, the continued rise in the index means that households may still be paying more than they did earlier in the year.
Nigeria’s ₦3.30 trillion food and beverage import bill for the first half of 2026 also underscores the scale of the country’s exposure to imported supplies. Sustained dependence can leave local food costs vulnerable to exchange-rate movements and changes in external prices.
For domestic producers, the figures reinforce the importance of addressing insecurity, production costs and post-harvest losses. A lasting improvement in food affordability will depend not only on slower price increases but also on the availability and cost of locally produced food.
WHAT’S NEXT
The next data releases will show whether the slowdown in imported food price growth continues and whether it is accompanied by sustained moderation in overall food inflation. Developments in domestic agricultural production, food supply and import spending will also be important in assessing whether the easing in inflation translates into meaningful relief for households.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s imported food price growth slowed sharply in September, with the annual increase falling to 9.19 per cent and monthly growth nearly flat. But the index remains above its January level, meaning the slowdown reflects a slower rise in prices rather than a broad reversal of earlier increases.
