According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in 2023 there will be an increase in non-OPEC oil supply of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d). This is a small improvement above the prior estimate of 1.4 mb/d.
This information was taken from the August OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. Nations outside of OPEC that produce crude oil as well as shale oil producers are considered non-OPEC oil producers.
The main oil producers outside of OPEC include the United States, which is the largest producer, as well as Canada and China. According to the analysis, the United States, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and China are anticipated to be the top oil supply growth drivers in 2023, while Russia is predicted to have the highest fall.
It said there remained uncertainties associated with U.S shale oil output potential and unplanned maintenance in 2023. According to the report, for 2024, non-OPEC oil production is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment.
“For 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the U.S, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan, mainly due to existing project ramp-ups.
“The largest declines are expected from Mexico and Azerbaijan.
“OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 46 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in 2023 to an average of 5.4 mb/d and by another 65 tb/d to an average of 5.5 mb/d in 2024,” it said.
According to accessible secondary sources, the output of crude oil by the OPEC-13 in July declined by 836 tb/d month over month (m-o-m) to an average of 27.31 mb/d. The study also stated that it projected the world’s oil demand to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, the same as it had predicted in July.
According to the report, lower adjustments to 2Q23, primarily in Europe and Other Asia, totally offset positive revisions to the first quarter of 2023, based on actual data received for OECD America and OECD Europe.
“In the OECD region, oil demand in 2023 is anticipated to rise by 74 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), to an average of 46.0 mb/d.
“While in the non-OECD region, total oil demand is anticipated to rise by nearly 2.4 mb/d, to average 56.0 mb/d,” the report said.
It stated that for 2024, world oil demand was forecast to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment. According to the report, the OECD is anticipated to expand by about 0.3 mb/d, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase.
It added that the non-OECD was set to drive growth, increasing by around 2.0 mb/d, with China, the Middle East and Other Asia contributing the largest share, with further support from India, Latin America, and Africa.
