LBS Breakfast Presentation December 2023

• 2024 looks promising
• But the impact will be felt more in the second half of the year
• Nigeria’s government expenditure only contributes about 4% to the GDP

  • Not an adequate prescription of the role of the government
  • Government power & policies influence economic activities
  • Policies must be credible to drive investment flows
    • Which is key to driving Nigeria’s growth in the mid to long-term 81

    • Higher effective interest rates in Q1 and Q2
  • Minimum and full wage review – done in 2019
    • Reconstituting the inflation basket – last revised in 2009
    • Overhauling the forex market arrangement (CBN must participate in an open auction) and allow for a
    floating rate
    • The naira will fall towards N1,350/$ before bouncing back in Q2
    • Some super stocks will see their sizzle fizzle
  • Dangote refined petroleum products will be a boost to productivity but not a silver bullet
  • Real estate in some markets will remain red-hot
    • Banking consolidation process is now inevitable

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