According to figures issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate jumped to 26.72%, 92 basis points more than the 25.80% reported in August. This was exacerbated by food inflation, a falling naira, and the withdrawal of subsidies.
The effects of measures that began in June have seeped into headline inflation rate movement, which has been below market expectations. According to the Statistics Office, consumer inflation climbed by 0.92% in the month. Year on year, the headline inflation rate was 5.94% higher than the rate reported in September 2022, which was 20.77%.
This indicates that the headline inflation rate rose in September 2023 compared to the same month the previous year. Furthermore, on a monthly basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.10%, which was 1.08% lower than the rate recorded in August 2023 when it settled at 3.18%.
NBS said this means that in September 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level was less than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2023.
It noted that the percentage change in the average consumer price index (CPI) for the twelve-month period ending September 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 22.90%. This translates to a 5.47% increase compared to 17.43% recorded in September 2022, according to the statistics office.
URBAN INFLATION
On a year-on-year basis, in September 2023, the Urban inflation rate was 28.68%, this was 7.43% points higher compared to the 21.25% recorded in September 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 2.24% in September 2023, this was 1.05% points lower compared to August 2023 (3.29%).
The corresponding twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 24.10% in September 2023. This was 6.16% points higher compared to the 17.94% reported in September 2022.
RURAL INFLATION
The Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 24.94% on a year-on-year basis; this was 4.62% points higher compared to the 20.32% recorded in September 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 1.96%, down by 1.12% points compared to August 2023 (3.08%).
The corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 21.79%. This was 4.85% higher compared to the 16.94% recorded in September 2022. The Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 30.64% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022 (23.34%).
The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of Oil and fat, Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other Tubers, Fish, Fruit, Meat, Vegetables and Milk, Cheese, and Eggs. On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.45%, this was 1.41% lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.87%).
The decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Bread and cereals, Fruits, and Fish. The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending September 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 25.65%, which was 6.29% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2022 (19.36%).
