Nigeria’s gross external reserves have fallen to $37.181 billion, according to the latest update from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s currency platform. This marks a sharp decline of approximately $3.5 billion in the first half of 2025, dropping from $40.88 billion at the end of December 2024 to $37.37 billion as of June 26, 2025.
The reserves have consistently trended downward throughout the period, largely due to heightened foreign exchange (FX) obligations and persistent market pressures, according to analysts at Anchoria Limited in their mid-year economic report.
The Central Bank’s sustained FX interventions contributed significantly to the drawdown, as the regulator sought to stabilize the naira amid ongoing volatility in global oil markets. These markets were particularly turbulent due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. At the height of the crisis, Brent crude prices surged by nearly 8%, reflecting investor concerns over a broader regional conflict.
Despite the tension, Nigerian crude grades benefitted from the price rally. Bonny Light and Escravos Light approached the $80 per barrel level, while Brass River and Qua Iboe traded at $77.09 and $77.14, respectively. These prices have provided a welcome boost for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria, which rely heavily on petroleum revenues to fund government operations, noted AIICO Capital Limited in a recent briefing.
Nevertheless, the downward pressure on reserves remained strong. In June alone, Nigeria’s reserves fell by about $1.07 billion over just three weeks, declining from $38.39 billion on June 2—an indication of intensified FX interventions and sustained capital outflows.
While improved foreign portfolio inflows and increased FX supply from exporters and non-bank corporates offered some temporary support to the naira, Anchoria Limited warned that the market remains fragile. The combination of modest CBN inflows and a diminishing reserve buffer could limit the apex bank’s ability to absorb future demand shocks in the FX market.
Despite relative short-term naira stability, analysts caution that continued external pressures and weaker reserves may reduce Nigeria’s monetary flexibility, especially if global financial conditions tighten further.
The current environment, analysts say, highlights the need for cautious policy management and a robust external financing strategy going into the second half of the year.
