Nigerian crude oil recorded a strong close during Tuesday’s trading session, defying widespread uncertainty linked to the current trajectory of U.S. economic policy decisions.
The average price of Nigeria’s primary crude oil blends stood at $68 per barrel—roughly $4 higher than the prevailing rate for Brent Crude, which opened mid-week trading at approximately $64 per barrel.
Speaking on the situation, Farouk Ahmed, Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), acknowledged the challenges posed by the volatility in the global oil markets, stating that Nigeria’s economy, which heavily depends on oil exports, remains particularly vulnerable.
Ahmed noted that while consumers may welcome falling petroleum product prices, the impact on national revenue is deeply concerning. “As much as we, the consumers, appreciate the price reduction, it comes at a cost to our economy, since our revenue streams are also adversely affected,” he explained.
One of the significant sources of market instability is the erratic communication surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy directions. Analysts warn that key macroeconomic indicators due in upcoming data releases could sharply reverse the current market sentiment.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for the year downward, now projecting an increase of 730,000 barrels per day—substantially less than the 1.103 million barrels per day estimate issued just a month prior. As a result, the recent slide in oil prices shows no sign of recovery, especially as initial market optimism over possible tariff rollbacks continues to fade.
Domestically, Nigeria’s oil earnings are also under pressure from recurring sabotage on energy infrastructure. A surge in attacks in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta region has impacted operations significantly. Militant groups, including the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and the lesser-known Liberation Army of the Niger Delta, have claimed responsibility for a major assault on an oil pipeline linked to a Bayelsa State terminal.
Oando Energy has also come under siege, reporting three separate attacks on its pipelines within the past week.
The militant groups claim their actions were prompted by President Bola Tinubu’s recent imposition of a state of emergency in Rivers State, a major oil-producing area. President Tinubu’s declaration last month led to the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Deputy Governor Ngozi Odu, and all elected legislators in the state amid a prolonged period of political unrest.
Global Crude Market Remains Bearish
Worldwide, crude oil markets continue to be rattled by President Trump’s confrontational trade policies, which include sweeping tariffs on imports from several countries, most notably China, as well as threats to impose additional duties on other nations. These policies—often introduced or rescinded unpredictably—have disrupted global supply chains and shaken investor confidence, causing price volatility.
The global energy market remains particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in economic demand. As exemptions and waivers on U.S. tariffs are granted or withdrawn, crude prices have alternated between losses and brief rallies. Market participants have grown increasingly cautious, with many citing fears of global economic slowdown.
For oil-reliant economies such as Nigeria, such unpredictability in crude prices presents serious challenges for long-term economic planning and budgeting. The NMDPRA boss highlighted this issue, stating, “As everyone knows, the world economy and the oil market have been somewhat unstable recently due to the new American government’s tariff policy, which is not just aimed at China but spans across several countries.”
Major international financial institutions, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, have revised their oil price outlooks downward in response to the growing uncertainty. With trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalating into a full-blown economic conflict, fears of a global recession have intensified. President Trump has ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting immediate retaliatory measures from Beijing targeting American goods.
In the midst of this, Nigeria has been working to broaden its oil portfolio. The country recently added a new medium-sweet crude grade, Obodo, to its export roster—joining established grades like Forcados, Escravos, and Bonga. According to industry tracker Argus Media, Obodo was launched in April and is intended to appeal to European refineries.
European demand for Nigerian crude is expected to rise in the near term as regional refineries complete their seasonal maintenance cycles by the end of next month and ramp up production capacity.
