Public-health experts are urging Nigeria to adopt a science-driven, risk-proportionate tobacco harm reduction (THR) framework to significantly curb smoking-related diseases, warning that traditional anti-tobacco campaigns alone are unlikely to achieve substantial results.
The call follows the World Health Organisation’s Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS 2023), which shows that 3.7 per cent of Nigerian adults continue to smoke despite years of anti-tobacco measures. Health analyst and epidemiologist Dr. Yusuff Adebayo said Nigeria must strengthen existing tobacco-control strategies while also providing safer, regulated alternatives for adults who are unable or unwilling to quit.
“Decades of global tobacco-control efforts have shown one clear reality: a segment of adult smokers will continue to seek nicotine,” Adebayo explained. “The goal should be to encourage them toward less harmful, scientifically substantiated products. Tobacco harm reduction is a pragmatic, evidence-based tool that complements, not replaces, traditional control measures.”
Citing a 2022 review by Public Health England, Adebayo noted that vaping is considered at least 95 per cent less harmful than conventional smoking because it eliminates combustion—the main driver of conditions such as cancer, chronic lung disease, and heart disease. He also referenced U.S. Food and Drug Administration rulings that authorized specific heated-tobacco and oral-nicotine products as Modified Risk Tobacco Products (MRTPs), meaning they expose users to significantly fewer toxicants than cigarettes.
“These global precedents provide a scientific basis for Nigeria to develop its own risk-proportionate regulatory framework,” Adebayo said. He stressed that clear regulations, product standards, consumer safety rules, and fiscal policies reflecting relative risk are essential. “Excessive taxation or ambiguous rules could push smokers toward unregulated, unsafe products,” he warned.
Harm reduction is already recognized in Article 1(d) of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Countries such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Japan have significantly reduced smoking rates by adopting risk-proportionate approaches that make low-risk products more accessible than cigarettes.
Beyond regulation, Adebayo highlighted the importance of public trust and scientific communication. A 2024 study in the International Journal of Medical Students found widespread uncertainty among Nigerian medical trainees regarding THR principles. He recommended updating medical curricula, providing professional training, and creating independent advisory bodies to oversee post-market surveillance, monitor product use, and track unintended consequences.
Industry observers say that a well-structured THR policy could also boost economic outcomes by reducing illicit tobacco flows, attracting compliant manufacturers, stimulating innovation in low-risk nicotine technologies, and lowering healthcare costs associated with smoking-related illnesses.
“With the right mix of science, regulation, and public education, Nigeria can meaningfully reduce the health impacts of smoking while empowering adults with safer choices,” Adebayo said. “The country now has an opportunity to embrace a balanced, evidence-based pathway to better health outcomes.”
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