Nigeria has failed to meet its crude oil production quota for the sixth straight month, according to the February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Data submitted through direct communication shows that Nigeria produced an average of 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026.
While this represents a modest month-on-month increase of 37,000 barrels from December’s 1.422 million bpd, it still falls roughly 41,000 barrels short of the 1.5 million bpd OPEC ceiling. The country has not hit its assigned target since July 2025, a trend that is creating a widening gap in the 2026 national budget.
The persistent underperformance is attributed to a combination of aging infrastructure, technical maintenance at major terminals, and the lingering shadow of crude oil theft in the Niger Delta. Although the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that daily crude losses fell significantly in 2025, the “time-to-first-oil” for new offshore projects has not been fast enough to offset the natural decline of onshore wells.
Furthermore, the 1.459 million bpd figure is notably below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark used by the Federal Government to calculate the 2026 budget, leading to concerns that the government may need to increase its projected ₦25.9 trillion borrowing to cover revenue shortfalls.
Despite the missed quota, Nigeria successfully retained its title as Africa’s largest oil producer, staying ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.304 million bpd in the same period. Industry analysts note that while crude-only figures look lean, the total daily output of “crude plus condensates” remains closer to 1.62 million bpd—however, condensates are not counted toward OPEC quotas.
Moving forward, the NNPC Ltd. has pledged to ramp up production to 2 million bpd by 2027 through the “recovery of shut-in volumes,” but for now, the sixth consecutive month of underperformance remains a critical pressure point for the naira and the nation’s foreign exchange reserves.
 from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Data submitted through direct communication shows that Nigeria produced an average of 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026.){kind=link}