Nigeria has continued to rely heavily on imported petrol despite the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery, new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has revealed.
Between August 2024 and the first ten days of October 2025, the nation imported approximately 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), accounting for about 69% of total domestic fuel consumption during the period.
According to figures obtained from the NMDPRA’s report titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025)”, Nigeria consumed a total of 21.68 billion litres of petrol in the 15-month period. Of this volume, 6.67 billion litres — representing 31% — were sourced from domestic refineries, primarily the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, which began local petrol production in September 2024.
Decline in Petrol Imports
The data showed that imported petrol averaged 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 and peaked at 54.3 million litres per day the following month. However, import volumes gradually declined as local refining activity increased. By January 2025, daily imports had dropped to 24.15 million litres, further declining to 19.26 million litres in September 2025 and 15.11 million litres in the first ten days of October 2025.
Industry analysts attributed the decline to the ramp-up in domestic output from the Dangote Refinery, which has progressively captured a larger share of Nigeria’s fuel market. However, importers have accused the refinery of engaging in aggressive pricing strategies to dominate the sector.
Domestic Refining Expansion
Local petrol production rose significantly from 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres per day in January 2025, before stabilising at around 20 million litres per day in the following months. By October 2025, the refinery’s output averaged 18.93 million litres daily, surpassing import volumes for the first time.
The NMDPRA’s report also indicated fluctuations in total national supply, with the highest output recorded in September 2024 at 60.73 million litres per day. Supply later dropped to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million litres by October 2025. The figures also suggest that national consumption levels fell significantly over the review period — from 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 to 34.04 million litres in early October 2025.
These shifts occurred after the Federal Government fully deregulated the petrol market in September 2024, ending decades of fuel subsidies previously handled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
Refinery Exports and Market Competition
Although domestic production expanded, Dangote Refinery also exported refined products to foreign markets, including the United States and the Middle East. Reports from Argus Media and refinery officials confirmed that the facility shipped two long-range cargoes of fuel to the Gulf region between June and July 2025, following temporary refinery shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.
Earlier in the year, Aliko Dangote announced that the refinery had successfully exported two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco, marking a major milestone in its global operations. He noted that Nigeria had, for the first time, become a net exporter of refined products, revealing that between June and July 2025 alone, the refinery exported about one million tonnes of petrol.
“Today, Nigeria has actually become a net exporter of refined products. From the beginning of June to date (July 22), we have exported about one million tonnes of PMS within the last 50 days,” Dangote said.
Refinery’s Local Market Push
Despite its growing exports, the Dangote refinery continues to encourage domestic marketers to purchase locally refined petrol. Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of Dangote Group, stated recently that the refinery had over 310 million litres of petrol in storage, urging marketers to bring their trucks for loading.
“I have more than 310 million litres of PMS as of today inside my tanks, apart from the production that is coming out every day. Bring your tankers — we’ll load any number you bring,” Edwin said, asserting the refinery’s ability to meet both domestic and export demands.
The NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, also confirmed that the refinery now supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market. “Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres,” he said.
A Gradual Shift Toward Self-Sufficiency
By the end of the 15-month period, Nigeria’s total petrol supply reached 21.68 billion litres, comprising 15.01 billion litres from imports and 6.67 billion litres from domestic refining. The trend highlights the country’s gradual but measurable shift from heavy import dependence toward greater self-sufficiency in fuel production.
While imports continue to play a dominant role, the sustained increase in local output — particularly from the Dangote refinery — is reshaping Nigeria’s downstream petroleum landscape. Analysts believe that with time, improved pricing, and full integration of local refining capacity, Nigeria could finally achieve its long-held goal of ending petrol importation and attaining full domestic sufficiency.
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