Nigeria’s economic prospects for 2026 are shaping up more positively, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and top economic analysts forecasting stronger growth and a notable moderation in inflation, driven by structural reforms and improving macroeconomic indicators.
The outlook was unveiled at a hybrid economic roundtable hosted in Lagos by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) Centre for Financial Studies in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates. The event, themed “12th National Economic Outlook: Implications for Businesses in Nigeria in 2026,” brought together policymakers, economists, and business leaders to assess the country’s economic trajectory.
Speaking at the forum, the CBN Deputy Governor in charge of the Economic Policy Directorate, Dr. Muhammad Abdullahi, disclosed that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.49 percent in 2026, reflecting increased economic momentum across key sectors.
He also noted that inflation is expected to ease significantly to 12.94 percent, supported by reduced supply-side pressures and the cumulative impact of recent fiscal and monetary reforms.
According to Abdullahi, the positive outlook is underpinned by sustained expansion in the non-oil economy, improvements in crude oil production levels, rising private sector investment, and a more stable macroeconomic environment. He revealed that Nigeria recorded a balance of payments surplus of approximately $3.81 billion in 2025, marking a sharp turnaround from deficits posted in the preceding two years.
He further explained that foreign exchange conditions are expected to remain broadly stable, supported by continued FX market reforms, stronger oil earnings, growing diaspora remittances, and renewed investor confidence.
“External reserves are projected to rise beyond $50 billion by 2026,” Abdullahi said, adding that inflationary pressures are likely to continue softening due to lower food and energy costs, alongside the delayed effects of sustained monetary tightening.
Represented at the event by the Director of Monetary Policy at the CBN, Dr. Victor Oboh, Abdullahi reaffirmed the apex bank’s commitment to deepening reforms aimed at strengthening price stability and safeguarding the external sector. He also encouraged deposit money banks to scale up credit to productive segments of the economy, particularly manufacturing, agriculture, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Delivering the keynote address, Professor Biodun Adedipe, Chief Consultant at B. Adedipe Associates Limited, described 2026 as a stabilisation year for Nigeria’s economy. He said economic performance in 2026 is expected to outperform 2025, driven by exchange rate stability, easing inflation, rising foreign reserves, and improved stock market performance.
Adedipe observed that Nigerians are already beginning to experience the effects of recent reforms, citing gradual declines in the prices of some staple food items. He stressed the need for sustained policy consistency, particularly in boosting domestic production and agricultural output, to further contain inflation.
Also speaking, the President of the Nigerian Economic Society, Dr. Baba Musa, said Nigeria’s economic fundamentals are showing signs of improvement but warned that outcomes in 2026 would largely depend on how effectively reforms are implemented.
He emphasized that sound monetary, fiscal, and tax reforms would be critical to achieving projected outcomes, urging businesses to invest in capacity expansion, technology adoption, and market development to remain competitive.
Earlier, the Chairman of the CIBN Council, Professor Pius Olanrewaju, said the annual forum plays a crucial role in shaping economic policy conversations for the year ahead. He noted that new tax reforms scheduled to take effect from January 1 would broaden the tax base, strengthen government finances, and reduce reliance on oil revenues, while safeguarding small businesses and low-income earners.
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