KEY POINTS
- The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the average retail price of petrol rose by 1.62%, moving from N1,034.76 in January to N1,051.47 in February 2026.
- Despite the monthly hike, petrol prices dropped 15.60% year-on-year compared to the N1,245.80 recorded in February 2025.
- Diesel prices followed a similar trend, increasing 4.30% month-on-month to N1,420.17, though this remains lower than the February 2025 average of N1,501.05.
- Regional data shows that Yobe State paid the highest for petrol (N1,134.73), while Lagos State enjoyed the lowest average price (N966.61).
MAIN STORY
Energy costs in Nigeria showed a split personality in February 2026, characterized by short-term inflation and long-term relief.
According to the latest Price Watch reports from the NBS, consumers are feeling the pinch of a month-on-month increase in both petrol and diesel.
While petrol saw a marginal uptick, diesel surged more aggressively, jumping from N1,361.57 in January to over N1,420 in February.
This monthly volatility highlights the ongoing sensitivity of the local market to distribution logistics and seasonal demand shifts.
However, the broader economic picture offers a glimmer of hope. On a year-on-year basis, both fuels are significantly cheaper than they were twelve months ago. Petrol, in particular, has seen double-digit percentage drops since early 2025.
The data also reveals a stark geographic divide in fuel accessibility. The North-East remains the most expensive zone for fuel, while the South-West, bolstered by the proximity of major coastal distribution hubs and private refineries, continues to record the nation’s lowest retail prices.
THE ISSUE
The primary challenge identified is the “Regional Price Disparity.” While the national average for petrol is N1,051, residents in Yobe are paying nearly N170 more per litre than those in Lagos. This “Logistics Tax” is largely driven by the high cost of transporting fuel to the northern fringes of the country. To resolve this, the government is leaning on the Presidential Initiative on CNG and EV to provide cheaper transport alternatives, but until those conversion kits and refuelling units achieve mass penetration, the “Distance Penalty” will continue to affect the cost of living for northern Nigerians.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
- “The February price of N1,051.47 represents a 1.62 per cent increase over the price recorded in January,” stated the National Bureau of Statistics.
- “Yobe paid the highest average retail price of N1,134.73 per litre, followed by Sokoto and Akwa Ibom,” the NBS report noted on state-by-state variations.
- “On a year-on-year basis, the [diesel] price decreased by 5.39 per cent from N1,501.05 recorded in February 2025,” highlighted the Diesel Price Watch.
- “Lagos paid the lowest average retail price of N966.61 followed by Oyo and Kaduna,” the Bureau confirmed.
WHAT’S NEXT
- Market analysts will be monitoring the March data to see if the slight February uptick develops into a quarterly trend or remains a minor fluctuation.
- The ongoing rollout of the Presidential Metering Initiative and the synchronization of the national grid may indirectly influence diesel demand if industrial users switch back to grid power.
- Furthermore, as the PiCNG & EV initiative deploys more mobile refuelling units, there is an expectation that demand pressure on liquid fuels may soften in high-cost regions.
- Finally, the NBS is expected to release its full inflation report later this month, which will clarify how these fuel price shifts have impacted food and transport costs across the federation.
BOTTOM LINE
The bottom line is that fuel is getting more expensive today, but it’s still cheaper than last year. While the month-on-month increase is a reminder of market volatility, the 15% year-on-year drop in petrol prices suggests that the sector’s broader reforms are starting to anchor prices. For the average commuter, the “Lagos-Yobe Gap” remains the biggest hurdle, proving that in Nigeria’s energy market, your location is just as important as the global price of oil.
