The Race to the White House Presidential Forecast anticipated the likely winner in each state by analyzing recent polls, electoral history, and national economic trends over the previous two years.
Using this information, the model simulates the Electoral College 50,000 times to calculate the likelihood of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the election. This data-driven forecast has been carefully validated for accuracy in every American presidential election since 1972.
Since its inception in 2020, Race to the White House has earned a solid reputation for making accurate forecasts. In 2022, it missed the precise number of Republican House members by one, and an independent analysis found that its House and Senate race probability were the most accurate among predictors.A
As of now, the forecast predicts that Kamala Harris has a 57.1% chance of winning, while Donald Trump has a 42.7% chance, with a margin of just 0.2% between them. In terms of projected Electoral College votes, Harris is expected to receive 284.2, while Trump is predicted to secure 253.8. Democrats are projected to win 247 seats, while Republicans are expected to claim 219.
Harris, the first female, Black, and Asian-American U.S. Vice President, gained President Biden’s endorsement to succeed him in the presidential race. Trump and Harris are the main contenders in the upcoming election. Harris has revitalised the Democratic base, swiftly closing the gap in the polls and reversing Trump’s gains in key swing states that could decide the election.
Meanwhile, on 15 September, Trump’s quiet weekend golf outing in Florida was abruptly interrupted by gunshots when a Secret Service agent thwarted what the FBI described as an apparent assassination attempt. Trump was unharmed, marking the second such incident in two months.
Investigators revealed that the gunman, Ryan Routh, did not fire at Trump but fled after a security agent spotted his rifle aimed through the tree line and opened fire. Trump blamed the incident on what he described as the “provocative rhetoric” of Biden and Harris.
Although Democrats condemned political violence, the incident highlights the growing volatility of U.S. politics just weeks before the election.
