Nigeria’s equity market could face fresh headwinds in 2026 as the federal government prepares to implement a new capital gains tax (CGT) regime that will impose levies of up to 30 per cent on substantial stock market profits, according to market analysts.
Under the new framework, investors who realise gains exceeding ₦150 million from the sale of shares listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) will be subject to the tax, while smaller retail investors remain largely exempt.
The CGT applies strictly to realised profits from share disposals and not to unrealised portfolio appreciation, a distinction authorities say is aimed at protecting long-term retail participation in the market.
Despite these exemptions, analysts warn the policy could dampen investor sentiment, particularly among institutional and high-net-worth participants who play a significant role in market liquidity.
The NGX delivered a historic 51.2 per cent return in 2025, positioning equities as one of the strongest hedges against Nigeria’s persistent double-digit inflation. However, uncertainty surrounding the CGT framework had earlier triggered portfolio exits before regulatory clarification emerged.
Anchoria Securities Limited said it remains cautiously optimistic about the market’s outlook, but acknowledged that sentiment remains delicate as the January 2026 implementation date approaches.
“We expect improving macroeconomic fundamentals to support the market, but investor confidence remains fragile due to the new CGT regime, which introduces a 25–30 per cent tax on sizeable equity gains above ₦150 million,” the firm said.
According to Anchoria, while retail investors are unlikely to be significantly impacted, institutional players are already reassessing exposure levels. The firm added that foreign portfolio inflows may slow as investors price in higher effective costs of equity participation.
Geopolitical risks have further complicated sentiment. Anchoria noted that recent military rhetoric by U.S. President Donald Trump towards Nigeria temporarily introduced a risk premium into asset pricing, although diplomatic engagement has since helped ease tensions.
Looking ahead, the potential listing of Dangote Refinery — and possibly its fertiliser business — on the NGX in 2026 could provide a major structural boost. The anticipated dual-structure listing would allow naira-based investment with U.S. dollar dividend payouts, a model expected to attract both domestic and offshore capital.
Anchoria projects that January could witness selective accumulation in high-quality industrial and consumer stocks, particularly defensive names with predictable earnings and dividend profiles. Sector rotation is expected to intensify as investors rebalance portfolios.
Financial year 2025 earnings guidance and early first-quarter results are expected to drive sentiment across the banking, consumer goods, and industrial sectors. In addition, the 2026 Appropriation Bill, which includes ₦26.08 trillion in capital expenditure, is expected to support demand for cement, steel, and construction inputs used in roads, housing, power, and rail infrastructure.
The insurance sector is also expected to remain active, with NAICOM’s recapitalisation programme continuing toward its July 30, 2026 deadline, sustaining speculative interest and consolidation narratives.
Anchoria added that the shift to a T+2 settlement cycle should enhance market liquidity and align the NGX more closely with global best practices.
Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector is likely to post moderate gains amid Brent crude prices ranging between US$60 and US$66 per barrel. Improved crude production averaging 1.40 million barrels per day in 2025 and relative foreign exchange stability offer some support, even as global oversupply concerns persist.
Overall, Anchoria maintains a cautiously bullish stance on consumer goods, industrials, and banking stocks, while advising prudence in oil and gas exposure due to global price volatility and FX risks.
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