The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected that the country’s inflation rate will decline to 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven primarily by falling food prices and lower costs of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.
The projection was disclosed in the apex bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, released on Wednesday. According to the report, Africa’s largest economy is also expected to record economic growth of 4.49 per cent during the period, supported by ongoing structural reforms and a gradual easing of tight monetary conditions.
The CBN said improvements across key sectors, combined with sustained policy consistency, are expected to enhance productivity and overall economic performance.
“Headline inflation is projected to moderate to an estimated average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by declining food and premium motor spirit prices,” the bank stated.
The inflation outlook follows recent reductions in petrol prices nationwide, triggered by intensified competition in the downstream oil sector. In recent weeks, Dangote Refinery slashed its ex-depot price for petrol in a move widely seen as an attempt to undercut rival marketers.
As a result, pump prices have declined across the country, with petrol selling for between ₦739 and ₦910 per litre in various locations.
The outlook is further reinforced by data from the National Bureau of Statistics, which reported that Nigeria’s food inflation rate eased to 11.08 per cent in November 2025.
The CBN expressed optimism that easing price pressures, particularly in food and energy, would help stabilise consumer prices, improve purchasing power, and support economic recovery as the country heads into 2026.
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