Naira Weakens On Low FX Inflows And High Foreign Payment Obligations

The Nigerian naira (NGN) continued to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday, pressured by limited foreign exchange inflows and an absence of intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Over recent weeks, the CBN has helped stabilise the official FX window by supplying dollars to meet rising demands from importers and other eligible market participants. However, with dollar outflows increasing due to elevated foreign payment obligations, pressure has intensified on the local currency, pulling it closer to the ₦1,450/$ mark.

Market operators report a noticeable reduction in FX inflows at a time when dollar demand remains high, creating a persistent imbalance. During Thursday’s trading session, the official exchange rate weakened by 7 basis points — or ₦0.98 — closing at ₦1,443.9028/$, with transactions oscillating between ₦1,446.00/$ and ₦1,442.00/$.

AIICO Capital Limited noted that the depreciation stemmed from market demand consistently outpacing available supply. Although the CBN recently injected roughly $450 million into the system to bolster liquidity, the inflows were insufficient to support the naira amid increased end-of-year payment activity for imports and other obligatory transactions.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves improved modestly, rising by $49.8 million to $44.6 billion as of November 26, 2025. Analysts expect the naira to remain sensitive to prevailing market dynamics, with reserves expected to provide moderate cushioning in the short term.

On the global stage, crude oil prices climbed on Thursday as traders assessed the possibility of renewed negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Thin trading volumes, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, also contributed to price movements.

Brent crude futures surged by 80 cents (1.28%) to $63.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 42 cents (0.72%) to $59.07. Gold prices, however, dipped slightly after reaching a two-week high earlier in the week, as investors weighed the likelihood of a potential US interest rate cut in December.

Spot gold slipped 0.17% to $4,157.46/oz, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.65% to $4,189.65/oz. Analysts anticipate the global markets to begin the new week on a cautiously optimistic note, supported by softer oil prices and a stable gold outlook, as market players await key macroeconomic indicators.