The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.9% in 2025, citing positive outcomes from recent macroeconomic reforms and improved fiscal management.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report released during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington D.C., the global financial body said it now expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026 — reflecting respective upward revisions of 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points from its earlier forecasts.
The IMF attributed the improved projections to a stronger naira exchange rate, better fiscal discipline, increased crude oil production, and enhanced security in key energy-producing regions. The report also highlighted Nigeria’s limited exposure to recent U.S. tariffs, which shielded its economy from external trade shocks.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, outperforming CSL Stockbrokers’ forecast of 3.9% and Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 3.6%. This represents a rebound from the 3.1% growth recorded in Q1 2025, driven largely by notable recoveries in the oil and agriculture sectors.
The oil sector, in particular, recorded a 20.5% year-on-year growth, a sharp jump from the 1.9% growth in the previous quarter, lifting industrial output by 7.5% despite mild weaknesses in manufacturing. Crude oil production averaged 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared to 1.41 mbpd a year earlier — the result of tighter security measures and a significant drop in pipeline vandalism and oil theft to their lowest levels since 2009.
The agriculture sector also regained momentum, expanding by 2.8% in Q2, up from just 0.1% in Q1. Growth in livestock (+1.6%) and fishing (+2.6%) helped drive a 3.6% rise in non-oil GDP, demonstrating the resilience of Nigeria’s domestic economy and the effectiveness of targeted reforms.
Looking ahead, CSL Stockbrokers projects Nigeria’s GDP to grow by 3.6% in Q3 2025, maintaining a full-year forecast of 3.7%. The firm expects continued recovery in oil production, supported by a favorable base effect, which could push annual oil growth to around 11.1%.
However, challenges persist. September data showed a 3.09% month-on-month drop in oil output to 1.58 mbpd, while structural bottlenecks and logistical inefficiencies remain key downside risks. Nonetheless, the non-oil sector—particularly agriculture and ICT—is expected to sustain growth momentum.
To boost agricultural productivity, the government recently announced the deployment of 2,000 tractors and 9,000 specialized farming tools to support farmers and enhance food production across the country.
Overall, analysts agree that Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025 remains positive and resilient, buoyed by stable oil output, expanding agricultural activity, and ongoing structural reforms. CSL Stockbrokers emphasized that continuous investment in infrastructure, stronger security in oil-producing regions, and support for key non-oil sectors will be crucial to ensuring broad-based, inclusive growth in the years ahead.
