Nigeria’s major crude oil grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—surged past $77 per barrel between Friday and Sunday, following Israel’s military strikes on Iran that have reignited fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Data from Oilprice.com on Sunday showed Bonny Light trading at $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe settled at $77.09 and $77.14, respectively. This marks a significant rise from an average of $65 per barrel just days earlier and pushes prices more than $2 above the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, offering a potential, albeit short-term, fiscal buffer.
Oilprice.com attributed the spike to geopolitical uncertainty, noting, “The geopolitical risk premium is back.” Brent futures climbed to $74.23 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $73, as markets priced in expectations of continued hostilities between Israel and Iran and the possible disruption of vital oil supply routes.
Although Israel’s airstrikes did not directly target oil infrastructure, fears of Iranian retaliation rattled global markets. Israel also preemptively shut down some gas production facilities heading into the weekend, while concerns mounted over threats to the Red Sea and the vital Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 19 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, nearly a fifth of global consumption.
Analysts warn that while the price rally may temporarily boost government revenues, it could also drive up local fuel prices. With refiners facing higher crude costs—the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel—consumers may bear the brunt of sustained high prices.
Unlike previous price drops earlier this year, which were largely influenced by trade tensions and weak demand, this current surge is being driven predominantly by conflict risk, not by supply constraints or market fundamentals.
