Nigeria is expected to import 2.1 million metric tons of rice in 2024, potentially making it the world’s largest rice buyer, as indicated by the latest Rice Outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
The report forecasts global rice trade to reach approximately 52.85 million tons (milled basis) in 2024. Brazil and South Korea are projected to increase exports, while Burkina Faso, Indonesia, and Nigeria are expected to raise imports.
The report highlights weaker rice production in Nigeria and seven other countries due to factors such as diet diversification and demographic changes. Global rice production in 2023/24 is estimated at a record 517.8 million tons (milled basis), with Nigeria contributing about 5.23 million tons.
Nigeria is predicted to be the top rice importer in 2024, followed by Indonesia (2 million metric tons) and Brazil (900,000 metric tons). The import forecast for Nigeria was increased by 100,000 metric tons from the previous projection in October, attributed to strong demand fueled by high domestic rice prices and quality concerns.
The recent removal of foreign exchange restrictions by the Central Bank of Nigeria on rice and 42 other items is expected to encourage increased rice imports. While this move has generated mixed reactions, including support from some farmers who see it breaking the monopoly of local millers, it may contribute to higher rice imports into the country.
Despite a decline in official rice imports, there is a likelihood of increased smuggling of foreign rice into the country. The Nigeria Customs Service recently reported the seizure of 13 trailer loads of foreign parboiled rice and other items.
