The Federal Government generated about N21.22tn in revenue from five key agencies in the first half of 2025, according to official reports. The performance highlights intensified revenue mobilisation through stricter enforcement, wider tax coverage, and stronger customs and oil earnings. But despite the six-month windfall, government borrowing from foreign lenders has continued unabated, raising fresh concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt burden.
Data submitted to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) showed that the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) collected a record N13.76tn, followed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) with N5.21tn from oil royalties and related receipts.
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) contributed N2.02tn, while the Ministry of Mines and Steel Development generated N32.39bn. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) reported commercial earnings of N197.8bn, although it disclosed separate statutory remittances of N6.96tn within the same period.
Altogether, the agencies have achieved about 42% of their collective N50.2tn target and 58% of the Federal Government’s N36.35tn full-year projection. Analysts say if the momentum is sustained, 2025 revenue performance could surpass projections under the N54.2tn “Budget of Restoration.”
Debt pressures mount
Despite the revenue boost, Nigeria’s public debt rose to N149.39tn as of March 31, 2025—up 22.8% year-on-year from N121.67tn. Debt to the World Bank alone climbed to $18.23bn, accounting for 81% of Nigeria’s total multilateral debt and nearly 40% of external obligations.
Fresh borrowing plans approved by the National Assembly could add another N38.24tn by 2026, potentially pushing total public debt above N182tn. The new pipeline includes $21.54bn, €2.19bn, and ¥15bn in facilities, with additional World Bank loans and grants expected before year-end.
Already in 2025, Nigeria has secured about $1.08bn in fresh loans, alongside over $122m in grants, to fund education, health, nutrition, and resilience projects.
Experts divided
Economists remain split on the implications.
- Aliyu Ilias, CEO of CSA Advisory, criticised the borrowing spree, noting that revenue surpluses from FIRS and Customs should reduce reliance on external debt. He warned that debt servicing was crowding out spending on capital projects, fuelling inflation, and worsening foreign exchange instability.
- Adewale Abimbola, however, argued that concessionary loans tied to growth projects could be beneficial if well utilised. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation,” he said.
- Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, praised the strong revenue inflows as a sign of economic recovery and ongoing reforms. He noted that improved revenues could reduce the scale of borrowing required to fund the deficit.
The outlook
With H1 earnings already exceeding half of the annual revenue target, Nigeria’s fiscal prospects look stronger than in recent years. However, experts stress that without tighter debt management and prudent deployment of new loans, the benefits of higher revenues may be overshadowed by mounting debt obligations.
