By Boluwatife Oshadiya | March 12, 2026
Key Points
- OPEC crude oil production increased by 164,000 barrels per day in February to 28.63 million bpd
- Venezuela recorded the largest output gain while Nigeria saw the biggest decline in production
- Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.38 million bpd in 2026, reaching 106.5 million bpd
Main Story
Crude oil production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, reaching approximately 28.63 million bpd, according to the cartel’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released Wednesday.
The increase reflects higher output from several member states, most notably Venezuela, which posted the largest monthly gain. The country’s production rose by 80,000 barrels per day to 903,000 bpd, continuing a gradual recovery in its oil sector after years of sanctions and operational challenges.
In contrast, Nigeria recorded the steepest production decline among OPEC members during the same period. Nigeria’s output fell by 28,000 barrels per day to around 1.46 million bpd, reflecting persistent challenges including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta.
The report also showed that total crude production by the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-OPEC producers such as Russia, increased by 445,000 bpd to 42.72 million bpd.
Despite the supply increase, OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of 1.38 million bpd, bringing total demand to about 106.5 million bpd.
The Issues
The divergence in production trends highlights structural challenges facing several African oil producers. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, continues to struggle with oil theft, pipeline sabotage, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.
At the same time, global demand growth is increasingly shifting toward non-OECD economies, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. According to OPEC’s projections, demand in non-OECD countries will rise by 1.23 million bpd in 2026, reaching 60.44 million bpd.
By contrast, demand in advanced economies belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is expected to grow modestly by 150,000 bpd, reaching 46.08 million bpd.
What’s Being Said
“Demand growth remains solid, particularly across emerging economies where industrialisation and mobility trends continue to support oil consumption,” OPEC said in the report.
“Nigeria’s production challenges underscore the urgent need for stronger security measures and sustained upstream investment,” said Ayodele Oni, Energy Lawyer and Partner, Bloomfield Law Practice.
What’s Next
- OPEC will continue monitoring global supply and demand trends ahead of its next ministerial meeting.
- Oil demand is projected to rise further in 2027 to about 107.87 million bpd, according to the group’s forecast.
- Energy markets will watch whether Nigeria and other producers can stabilise production amid rising global demand.
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