Oil prices edged higher on Monday, January 26, 2026, as Winter Storm Fern forced significant production shut-ins across the United States. JPMorgan analysts estimate that approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude output has been lost due to subzero temperatures affecting key regions like the Bakken field in North Dakota and the Permian Basin in Texas.
Brent crude futures rose to $66.30 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $61.49, both benchmarks building on a 2.7 percent weekly gain.
In North Dakota, the state regulator reported that crude output dropped by roughly 110,000 bpd as temperatures plunged to -16°F. The Permian Basin, which accounts for nearly half of total U.S. crude production, also faced localized outages as sleet and freezing rain triggered “freeze-offs” in pipelines.
While Texas officials expressed confidence in the power grid’s resilience, the threat of sustained subfreezing temperatures through Monday has kept traders on edge regarding the speed of production recovery.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further tightened the market. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration of a U.S. “armada” sailing toward Iran has added a significant risk premium to global prices.
Analysts note that while the physical supply loss from the storm is currently manageable, the combination of domestic output disruptions and the potential for conflict in the Persian Gulf has shifted market sentiment toward a bullish outlook for the remainder of January.
Natural gas markets have reacted even more sharply than crude. U.S. natural gas production plunged by about 10 billion cubic feet in recent days as frozen pipelines choked off supply during a period of record heating demand. At the Waha gas hub in the Permian Basin, prices reached an eight-month high of $2.38/mmBtu.
While global inventories remain ample, the dual impact of restricted U.S. output and rising geopolitical risks suggests that energy prices will remain volatile until the arctic front recedes.
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