Crude oil prices in the global commodity market continued to rise modestly as traders assessed the tug-of-war between demand prospects and supply challenges amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Investors’ sentiment improved following the World Bank’s upward revision of China’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%, signalling potential recovery in demand from the world’s largest oil importer. However, analysts noted that China’s consumption remains volatile due to lingering economic pressures that have dampened import levels in recent months.
India’s continued purchases of Russian crude have drawn fresh U.S. sanctions, including higher tariffs on certain goods, further complicating global trade flows. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to weigh on supply, with Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian energy infrastructure fuelling renewed fears of disruption and supporting price gains.
In the Middle East, cautious optimism persists as global diplomatic efforts aim to ease regional tensions. Reports suggest that attacks in the Red Sea have declined, while Iran plans to ramp up exports. At the same time, eight members of the OPEC+ alliance — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — have agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, a move that could create a temporary supply surplus.
As of the latest session, Brent crude traded at $65.57 per barrel, up 0.33% from $65.35, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.32% to $61.69 from $61.49.
Market observers said the group’s measured output hike underscores OPEC+’s commitment to price stability rather than aggressive market-share recovery. Analysts expect the alliance to maintain its cautious approach amid projections of an oversupplied market later this year and into 2026.
However, escalating geopolitical risks — particularly Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russian energy facilities — continue to underpin prices by raising fears of export disruptions.
In the United States, the prolonged government shutdown has amplified investor caution and heightened global market risks. Analysts warned that the uncertainty, coupled with concerns over potential economic slowdown, may limit further price advances in the near term.
