Oil prices edged lower on Friday as markets priced in expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will raise output in July. The downward trend also reflected broader market uncertainties stemming from shifting U.S. trade policies.
Brent crude futures dropped 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $63.94 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), declined 22 cents, or 0.36%, to $60.72 per barrel.
Both benchmarks were set to register a second consecutive weekly loss, weighed down by the prospect of an OPEC+ supply increase and the ongoing volatility in U.S. trade policy. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit temporarily reinstated former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Thursday—just a day after a lower trade court ruled he had exceeded his authority and blocked the duties.
The appeals court’s stay allows time for the government to appeal the ruling, with filings expected by June 9. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome has further added to investor caution.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil fundamentals presented a mixed picture. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed commercial crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ending May 23, defying market expectations of a 1 million-barrel build.
Strategic petroleum reserves increased by 800,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 2.4 million barrels to 223.1 million barrels, reflecting continued strong fuel demand.
U.S. crude production rose slightly by 9,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching 13.4 million bpd. Over the same period, imports climbed by 262,000 bpd to 6.35 million bpd, and exports surged by 794,000 bpd to 4.3 million bpd.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released May 7, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.4 million bpd in 2025, signaling continued supply strength from the world’s largest oil producer.
As markets await the OPEC+ meeting outcome, the interplay of rising supply, shifting policy dynamics, and strong U.S. fundamentals continues to shape the short-term direction of oil prices.
