Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed to their highest level in eight years, supported by increased crude oil production and relative stability in global commodity prices.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data show that the country’s gross external reserves rose to $46.012 billion as of January 22, 2026. Of this figure, 1.18 percent represents blocked funds. The last time reserves reached similar levels was in August 2018.
The increase reflects a rise of approximately $510 million in 2026, following a closing balance of $45.5005 billion on December 31. Analysts attribute the improvement to structural reforms in the oil sector, stronger export receipts, and the impact of higher production volumes after the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicate that Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, averaged 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025. This represents a 5.81 percent increase compared to the 1.55 mbpd recorded in 2024.
However, production experienced a month-on-month decline in December, falling by 3.42 percent to 1.54 mbpd from 1.60 mbpd in November, a drop that affected foreign earnings from hydrocarbon exports during the period.
When condensates are excluded, crude oil output rose by 8.21 percent year-on-year, increasing from 1.34 mbpd in 2024 to 1.45 mbpd in 2025. The improved output supported government revenue and fiscal performance, although borrowing levels continued to rise across both domestic and external debt markets.
A closer analysis of 2025 production data shows strong performances across Nigeria’s major export terminals. The Forcados terminal recorded a 12.08 percent year-on-year increase, with average output rising to 8.56 million barrels from 7.64 million barrels in 2024.
Production at the Escravos terminal also improved, climbing by 3.98 percent to 4.29 million barrels from 4.13 million barrels in the previous year. The Qua Iboe terminal saw a sharper increase of 16.69 percent, with average production rising to 4.42 million barrels from 3.79 million barrels in 2024.
The Bonny terminal delivered the strongest growth, recording a 25.19 percent surge to 7.41 million barrels, compared with 5.92 million barrels in the prior year. Output at the Brass terminal increased by 18.04 percent, averaging 1.06 million barrels in 2025.
Looking ahead, analysts project modest improvements in crude oil production, with average output expected to reach approximately 1.71 mbpd, up from 1.64 mbpd in 2025. Most investments recorded last year were focused on infrastructure rehabilitation and upgrades to marginal fields, limiting the potential for significant output expansion.
While authorities remain optimistic about raising production to around 2.06 mbpd, OPEC’s decision to cap Nigeria’s crude oil output—excluding condensates—at 1.50 mbpd in 2026 underscores the constraints on growth without substantial new investments.
Industry experts, however, note that the sustained decline in crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism remains a positive trend and could help stabilise production levels across the sector in the medium term.
