Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped by 33,000 barrels per day in September, averaging 1.405 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to the latest report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This marks a decline from the 1.438 mb/d recorded in August, based on secondary data from Nigerian authorities.
Data from direct communication indicates an even sharper fall, with Nigeria’s September output averaging 1.324 mb/d, a drop of 27,000 barrels compared to August’s 1.352 mb/d.
Despite the decline, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, widening the gap with Libya, whose production plummeted to 450,000 barrels per day due to the shutdown of key oil fields.
Global Production Trends
Non-DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) liquids supply, which refers to production from countries not participating in the OPEC+ agreement, is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, keeping the overall supply at an average of 53.1 mb/d—unchanged from last month’s forecast.
In the United States, crude and condensate production dipped slightly in July. However, natural gas liquids (NGLs) production remained steady at around 6.9 mb/d, reflecting a 0.4 mb/d increase from the previous year. US liquids supply growth for 2024 is projected at 0.6 mb/d, with key contributors to non-DoC growth being Canada, Brazil, and China.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Output
OPEC-12’s total crude oil production averaged 26.04 mb/d in September, reflecting a 604,000 barrels per day month-on-month decrease. Iran and Kuwait increased their output, while production fell in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, production from non-OPEC DoC members averaged 14.06 mb/d in September, with a modest increase of 47,000 barrels per day, driven by Kazakhstan, while Russia experienced a decline.
Challenges for Nigeria
The September dip in Nigeria’s oil production aligns with earlier reports from Nairametrics, which had flagged a 40,000-barrel decline. Like Libya, Nigeria has faced challenges in boosting its production to meet both its OPEC quota and local refinery needs. Throughout 2024, Nigeria’s oil output has hovered between 1.2 and 1.3 mb/d, struggling to regain higher production levels.
