Nigeria is preparing to advocate for an increased oil production quota at the upcoming Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting slated for November, as part of its strategy to enhance hydrocarbon revenues and expand foreign exchange inflows.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, Nigeria’s current OPEC allocation of about 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) no longer reflects the nation’s true production potential. Investment analysts at CSL Stockbrokers Limited noted that the minister’s remarks underline the Federal Government’s determination to rejuvenate the oil sector and restore its central role in Nigeria’s economic growth.
Over the past decade, Nigeria has struggled to meet its OPEC production targets due to structural inefficiencies and persistent security challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and illegal bunkering. These illicit activities have significantly drained the nation’s revenues and disrupted key export pipelines, resulting in lower production volumes and weaker fiscal performance.
Oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s export earnings and public finances, meaning disruptions in production directly affect the country’s fiscal flexibility and currency stability. To counter these setbacks, the government has outlined a short-term production goal of 2.5 mbpd by 2026, aiming to re-establish Nigeria as Africa’s largest oil producer.
By seeking an upward adjustment of its OPEC quota, Nigeria intends to create room for its planned production ramp-up and to align its quota with the country’s 2026 target. Recent developments in the upstream sector—including renewed foreign investments and government incentives—suggest growing optimism about achieving this target.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has rolled out new policies designed to accelerate project approvals, reactivate dormant oil blocks, and attract new capital for deep-water projects. Global oil majors are reportedly in talks to commit billions of dollars to upstream development, infrastructure rehabilitation, and field revitalization.
However, challenges persist. Oil theft and vandalism remain deeply entrenched, while bureaucratic bottlenecks and rising operational costs continue to impede progress. These risks threaten the government’s ability to meet its production ambitions despite ongoing reforms.
Recent data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) shows that crude oil production fell to 1.39 mbpd in September, down from 1.43 mbpd in August 2025 — the second straight month of decline. When condensates are included, total output dropped to 1.58 mbpd from 1.63 mbpd in the previous month.
These figures are well below the government’s near-term targets of 2.06 mbpd for 2025 and 2.5 mbpd for 2026, as well as CSL Stockbrokers’ projections of 1.69 mbpd and 1.77 mbpd for the same years. The data underscores the significant hurdles Nigeria must overcome to fully benefit from any future increase in OPEC quota allocations.
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