By Annette Ikponmwonba | November 12th, 2026
Key Points
· Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate output rose 5.7 per cent year-on-year to an average of 1.69 million barrels per day in October 2026
· Output fell 1.7 per cent from September’s 1.72 million barrels per day, a drop of about 29,000 barrels per day
· Crude alone averaged 1.51 million barrels per day, or 101 per cent of the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota
· This is the sixth consecutive month Nigeria has met its OPEC quota
· Daily output ranged from a peak of 1.79 million to a low of 1.60 million barrels
· The regulator credits improved operational stability, uptime and crude evacuation efficiency
Main Story
Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production rose by 5.7 per cent year-on-year to an average of 1.69 million barrels per day in October 2026, despite a 1.7 per cent decline from the previous month. Figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission on Wednesday showed the country produced an average of 1,687,710 barrels per day, compared with 1,597,199 barrels per day in October 2025. That is an additional 90,511 barrels per day.
The October output was lower than the 1.72 million barrels per day recorded in September, a month-on-month decline of about 29,000 barrels per day. Daily production fluctuated between a peak of 1.79 million barrels and a low of 1.60 million barrels during the month.
Excluding condensates, Nigeria produced an average of 1.51 million barrels per day of crude oil, representing 101 per cent of its 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota. The country therefore exceeded its allocation by roughly 10,000 barrels per day, extending its run of meeting the quota to six consecutive months.
The Issues
The quota performance marks a clear improvement for a country that has long struggled to hit its OPEC allocation because of oil theft, pipeline vandalism and operational disruptions. Meeting the target six months running suggests more stable production, though the October dip shows the gains are not yet fully secure.
The year has been uneven. Combined output was about 1.63 million barrels per day in January, fell to 1.48 million in February, recovered to 1.55 million in March and rose to 1.66 million in April. It reached 1.70 million in May and its highest monthly average of about 1.74 million in June, before declining to 1.67 million in July, rising to 1.68 million in August and 1.72 million in September, then easing to 1.69 million in October.
Crude-only output has stayed close to the quota line, at 1.53 million in May, 1.55 million in June, 1.51 million in July, 1.50 million in August, 1.53 million in September and 1.51 million in October. With so little margin, a small disruption could push it below target.
What’s Being Said
In a statement, the commission’s Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, attributed the relatively stable performance to improved operational conditions in the upstream sector. The regulator said enhanced stability had supported production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency in recent months, It added that the October result reflected efforts by operators and other stakeholders to improve operational efficiency, maintain asset integrity and strengthen production reliability across the sector.
What’s Next
Attention will turn to November figures, to see whether output recovers toward September’s level and whether Nigeria extends its run of meeting the OPEC quota to a seventh month,Observers will also watch how stable production remains, given the recovery from February’s low and the slight moderation since June’s peak.
Bottom Line
Nigeria produced above its OPEC crude quota for a sixth straight month and posted solid year-on-year growth, but a modest monthly decline and thin margins show that sustaining the gains will depend on keeping operations stable.
