The Nigerian naira weakened on Monday as heightened demand for the U.S. dollar outweighed available supply, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) market intervention late last week.
Official FX data showed the naira closed at ₦1,533.67/$ at the start of the week, slipping slightly from ₦1,532.51/$ recorded at Friday’s close. The currency touched an intraday high of ₦1,535/$ and a low of ₦1,532/$, reflecting early-week pressure on the market.
To ease dollar scarcity, the CBN injected $166 million into the market last week through authorised dealer banks, equivalent to about ₦153 billion. The nation’s external reserves also rose modestly to $40.72 billion, supported by steady daily accretions.
Coronation Merchant Bank data showed total FX inflows climbed to $787.5 million last week, up from $732.8 million in the prior week. Non-bank corporates led inflows at $227.4 million, followed by exporters ($179.6 million), the CBN ($171.2 million), and foreign portfolio investors ($167.4 million). Individuals contributed $37.3 million, while other sources accounted for just 0.57%.
Analysts at Coronation expect the naira to trade within a stable range in the near term, citing sustained inflows from corporates, exporters, and portfolio investors alongside stronger reserves. However, they warned that exchange rate movements remain highly sensitive to oil prices, foreign investor sentiment, and CBN policy direction.
Oil Market Update
Global crude prices extended losses as supply concerns overshadowed demand prospects. Brent crude fell 1.11% week-on-week to $65.85/bbl, raising its year-to-date decline to 11.78%. In contrast, Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude edged up 0.59% to $70.25/bbl.
The slide in oil prices followed weak Chinese economic data—marking the slowest factory output in eight months and softest retail sales since December—fueling demand concerns in the world’s second-largest crude consumer.
Markets are also closely watching U.S.–Russia talks, where President Donald Trump appeared to align with President Vladimir Putin on peace deal parameters. Analysts warn that potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil could further tilt supply dynamics, deepening expectations of a global surplus.
Meanwhile, the outcome of the scheduled U.S.–Ukraine meeting is expected to influence market sentiment, with traders bracing for increased supply pressures from both Russia and OPEC+.
