The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will hit 5.5 percent in 2026, significantly outperforming conservative estimates from the World Bank and the IMF. In a policy statement released on January 27, 2026, the think tank attributed this bullish forecast to a “paradigm shift” in national economic management, moving from oil dependency to a framework of “policy-driven economic facilitation.”
According to IMPI Chairman Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the administration’s focus on reducing red tape, lowering transaction costs, and streamlining trade regulations is creating a fertile ground for sustainable, private-sector-led expansion.
IMPI noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently performed a “volte-face,” revising its 2026 growth projection for Nigeria upward to 4.4 percent—the highest estimate from the Fund for the country in 17 years.
While global multilateral institutions are becoming more confident, IMPI argues that domestic players like the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) are even more optimistic, with some projecting growth as high as 7.0 percent. The think tank maintains that as foreign exchange stability and disinflation take hold, the “agglomeration” of these positive outlooks signals an emerging economic paradigm focused on increased production and productivity momentum.
The projection is underpinned by a “Consolidation Phase” where structural reforms are expected to unlock new growth opportunities across 20 major economic sectors. IMPI emphasized that while the initial stages of the Tinubu reforms were difficult, the long-term impact is already strengthening investor confidence.
To sustain this trajectory, the group urged the government to remain committed to its current fiscal discipline, noting that a firmer growth path will have direct positive effects on employment and government revenue. This optimistic stance aligns with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), which also views 5.5 percent as an “optimal scenario” if reform momentum is fully maintained throughout the fiscal year.
 has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will hit 5.5 percent in 2026, significantly outperforming conservative estimates from the World Bank and the IMF.In a policy statement released on January 27, 2026, the think tank attributed this bullish forecast to a "paradigm shift" in national economic management, moving from oil dependency to a framework of "policy-driven economic facilitation."){kind=link}