The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global economic growth will remain resilient, with output expected to expand by 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, despite persistent geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties.
The outlook was detailed in the IMF’s January update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Monday. The fund noted that the forecast represents a slight upward revision for 2026 compared to its October 2025 assessment, while the projection for 2027 remains unchanged.
According to the IMF, the stability in headline global growth masks a complex interplay of opposing forces. While shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on economic activity, these pressures are being counterbalanced by strong investment momentum, particularly in technology-driven sectors such as artificial intelligence.
The fund observed that technology-related capital expenditure has been especially pronounced in North America and parts of Asia, helping to offset trade-related headwinds. Additional support is coming from accommodative financial conditions, ongoing monetary policy easing in some jurisdictions, and the adaptability of the private sector.
On inflation, the IMF expects global headline inflation to ease further, declining from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, before falling to 3.4 per cent in 2027. The projections are broadly in line with the fund’s earlier forecasts, though inflation in the United States is expected to return to target more gradually than in other major economies.
Among advanced economies, the IMF projects growth of 1.8 per cent in 2026, moderating slightly to 1.7 per cent in 2027. For emerging markets and developing economies, growth is forecast to remain just above 4.0 per cent in both years.
The Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to see growth accelerate from 3.7 per cent in 2025 to 3.9 per cent in 2026, rising further to 4.0 per cent in 2027. The IMF attributed this outlook to higher oil production, resilient domestic demand, and the continued implementation of structural reforms.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to strengthen from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and reform progress in key economies across the region.
For Nigeria, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 4.4 per cent in 2026, easing slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2027.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2026 before rebounding to 2.7 per cent in 2027, reflecting countries’ movement toward potential output from varying cyclical positions.
Emerging and developing Europe is projected to recover from a sharp slowdown in 2025, with average growth rising to 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.4 per cent in 2027.
Despite the broadly stable outlook, the IMF cautioned that risks remain skewed to the downside. These include the possibility of overvalued technology expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions. On the upside, the fund noted that stronger-than-expected AI-driven investment could translate into durable productivity gains and improved business dynamism, particularly if trade tensions continue to ease.
The IMF advised policymakers to rebuild fiscal buffers, safeguard price and financial stability, reduce policy uncertainty, and accelerate structural reforms to support long-term growth.
 has projected that global economic growth will remain resilient, with output expected to expand by 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, despite persistent geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties.){kind=link}