KEY POINTS

• Brent crude rose about 4% to around $117 per barrel in the week to October 23, 2026.
• Attacks in Saudi Arabia and a pipeline shutdown in Libya raised concerns about oil supplies.
• Europe’s gas prices climbed to their highest level since December 2022, while US gas prices fell to a two-month low.
• The United States is releasing 315,000 barrels of diesel from its Northeast reserve as global supplies tighten.
• Higher crude prices could boost Nigeria’s export earnings but also increase the cost of imported fuel.

MAIN STORY

Brent crude oil prices rose by about 4% to around $117 per barrel in the week to October 23, 2026, as attacks in Saudi Arabia and disruptions to oil infrastructure in Libya raised concerns about supplies.

In Saudi Arabia, oil company Aramco ordered staff to leave its headquarters in Dhahran and work from home following an attack by the Houthis. Drone strikes at the Shaybah oilfield also killed two people.

In Libya, the National Oil Corporation reported that unauthorised individuals had shut a pipeline valve serving the Hamada and Tahara oilfields. The affected fields produce 50,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil per day respectively. The disruption affects an oil stream that provides 90% of Libya’s state revenue, according to the information provided.

Diesel supplies also came under pressure. The United States Energy Department is offering 315,000 barrels of diesel from its Northeast reserve, representing one-third of the reserve, as global diesel exports decline.

Meanwhile, the first diesel shipment under an agreement between Washington and Moscow has left the Russian port of Primorsk for New York. Delivery is expected on November 7.

Gas prices moved in different directions in Europe and the United States. Europe’s main gas price rose above €93 per megawatt-hour, its highest level since December 2022. Restricted supplies of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, colder weather and lower-than-expected gas storage levels contributed to the increase.

In the United States, natural gas prices fell to $2.66 per million British thermal units, their lowest level in two months. Milder weather, recovering supplies from offshore production and gas inventories above their usual levels helped bring prices down. Prices for gas delivery in 2027 also fell to a five-year low.

For Nigeria, crude prices around $117 per barrel could mean higher earnings on each barrel exported. However, the country’s actual revenue will depend on how much oil it produces and sells, alongside the costs involved in production and other obligations.

Higher oil prices can also increase the cost of imported refined fuel. If international fuel prices and other import costs rise, transport operators, manufacturers and businesses that rely on petrol or diesel could face higher expenses. These increases may eventually affect the prices consumers pay for goods and services.

THE ISSUES

Nigeria faces both an opportunity and a risk when crude prices rise. The country can earn more from each barrel sold abroad, but that benefit may be reduced if production falls or costs increase.

Higher crude prices can also make imported fuel more expensive. This matters to Nigerian businesses because fuel is a major operating expense for transport, manufacturing and distribution. When those costs rise, businesses may pass some of the increase on to customers.

The recent disruptions also show how attacks on oil facilities and damage to pipelines can affect global energy prices. Even when overall oil supply and demand have not changed significantly, fears of further interruptions can push prices higher.

WHAT’S NEXT

Developments affecting oil production and transport in Saudi Arabia and Libya will remain important to global crude prices. Changes in diesel supplies and Europe’s ability to replenish its gas storage will also influence energy costs.

For Nigeria, monthly oil production figures published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission will help show whether the country is producing enough to benefit from higher prices. The effect on public revenue and domestic fuel costs will depend on both international prices and conditions at home.

BOTTOM LINE

Brent crude near $117 per barrel presents Nigeria with the prospect of earning more from oil exports. But higher prices do not automatically translate into greater government revenue, and they may also raise fuel costs for businesses and households.