The global base oil market is entering a phase of steady expansion, with its valuation projected to grow from $40.29 billion in 2025 to $46.59 billion by 2030. According to the latest Global Forecast Report released on February 18, 2026, the industry is maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9%.
This growth is primarily fueled by the automotive sector, which remains the largest consumer of base oils, accounting for over 52% of total market demand as vehicle production rises in emerging economies.
A significant trend highlighted in the 2025 report is the aggressive “premiumization” of the market. High-performance Group III base oils are identified as the fastest-growing segment, as modern engines and stricter environmental standards, such as the ILSAC GF-7 effective March 2025—require lubricants with lower volatility and better fuel efficiency.
While traditional Group I oils are seeing a decline in market share, Group II and Group III oils are attracting the bulk of new capital investments, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which now controls nearly 49% of the global market.
The competitive landscape remains dominated by integrated energy giants, including ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Shell, and Sinopec. These players are increasingly pivoting toward synthetic and bio-based alternatives to align with global net-zero goals.
However, the report also notes that the industry faces headwinds from volatile crude oil prices and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which use different thermal-management fluids than traditional internal combustion engines. To counter this, many refiners are diversifying their portfolios into specialized industrial and marine lubricants to ensure long-term profitability.
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