In a strategic move to uphold the value of the naira, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) injected approximately $81 million into the official foreign exchange window last week, stepping in as dollar inflows dropped by 25% week-over-week.
The apex bank’s intervention came as demand for the greenback outpaced supply due to a lull in open market operations. According to Coronation Research, dollar inflows into Nigeria’s FX market dipped to $979.10 million, down from $1.31 billion in the preceding week.
Data from Coronation Merchant Bank’s research unit revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were once again the major drivers of FX inflows, accounting for 51.39%—or $503.10 million—of total supply. Non-bank corporates contributed 23.37%, injecting $228.80 million, while exporters and importers added $127.80 million (13.05%) and $108.90 million (11.12%) respectively. All other sources made up slightly above 1% of the total inflow for the period.
Despite this reduced inflow, Nigeria’s gross external reserves saw an increase of $693.96 million, rising to $38.62 billion. This marks the third straight week of reserve growth and is largely attributed to sustained foreign portfolio inflows.
Coronation Research forecasted a relatively steady FX market barring any significant macroeconomic disruptions. It also anticipates that foreign investors will maintain their interest in Nigeria’s fixed income space, as the country’s macroeconomic environment shows gradual signs of improvement.
Despite the CBN’s intervention, the naira depreciated on average by ₦2.38 per dollar, closing at ₦1,534.72/USD, highlighting the persistent demand pressure.
Brent crude prices dropped by 1.44% week-on-week to settle at $67.60 per barrel, down from $68.59/bbl. The year-to-date slump now stands at 9.43%, with the 2025 average at $71.77/bbl—about 10.13% lower than the previous year.
Similarly, Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude declined 1.37% to $73.36/bbl. Oil market sentiment fluctuated as initial gains from Russia’s gasoline export restrictions were erased by weak economic indicators from the U.S. and China and increased global supply signs. By the week’s end, Brent crude hit a three-week low amid cautious trading influenced by U.S.–EU tariff talks.
Over the weekend, the U.S. and European Union struck a deal to reduce a potential tariff war, agreeing on a 15% tariff on EU goods—half the initially threatened figure. This development is expected to reduce uncertainty and potentially stimulate global demand, including for crude oil.
On the supply front, while certain OPEC+ countries hinted at ramping up production to reclaim market share, other members preferred to maintain the existing output agreement.
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