The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic projection upwards to 1.8 per cent as against 1.1 per cent it forecasted on January this year.
The global financial institution estimated that Nigeria’s economy will grow up to 2.1 per cent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2024
The bank gave this prediction in its June 2021 Global Economic Prospects report entitled “Global Recovery Strong but Uneven as Many Developing Countries Struggle with the Pandemic’s Lasting Effects.”
The World Bank however said this could only be achieved if there are higher oil prices, structural oil sector reforms, and market-based flexible exchange rate management.
Highlighting the expected risks in the SSA region, the bank warned that rising conflicts could weaken recoveries.
The bank said, “Growth in Nigeria is expected to resume at 1.8% in 2021 and edge up to 2.1% next year, assuming higher oil prices, structural oil sector reforms, and market-based flexible exchange rate management.
“In agricultural commodity exporters, growth is forecast to resume at a faster pace of 4.5 per cent a year on average in 2021 to 22.”
It also predicted that global economy growth by 5.6 per cent in 2021, even though many emerging market and developing economies continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, economic activity is projected to rise by 2.8 percent in 2021 and 3.3 percent in 2022 as countries continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
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“While there are welcome signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to inflict poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world,” World Bank Group President, David Malpass, said.
“Globally coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate vaccine distribution and debt relief, particularly for low-income countries. As the health crisis eases, policymakers will need to address the pandemic’s lasting effects and take steps to spur green, resilient, and inclusive growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability.”
Commenting on other risks that could hamper recovery, the bank said, “While some countries (Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa) are upgrading national vaccine distribution systems, procurement and logistical hurdles in many other countries could further slow vaccinations.
“An oil price drop could dent revenues for some oil exporters. Food insecurity remains a key risk as food prices have risen by more than 20 percent early this year in Angola, Ethiopia and Nigeria.
“Flood and drought could also destroy crops, exacerbate food price inflation, and further weigh on household consumption.
“A sudden rise in sovereign borrowing costs could instigate financial pressures in some countries and high debt burdens and fiscal pressures could become more acute.”
