The World Bank has identified Nigeria’s banking sector as a pivotal engine for accelerated economic growth, suggesting that it possesses the capacity to drive the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) beyond a 7% expansion. Speaking at the Agusto & Co. 2026 Economic Roundtable in Lagos on February 12, 2026, World Bank Country Director Matthew Verghis noted that while the official forecast for Nigeria currently sits at a decade-high of 4.4%, the ambition must be scaled to 7% or 8% to meaningfully transform the lives of citizens.
Verghis emphasized that for Nigeria to achieve its goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030, the financial sector must move beyond high-yield government securities and aggressively redirect liquidity toward the domestic private sector.
The ongoing banking recapitalization exercise is central to this projected growth. By December 2025, approximately 25 out of Nigeria’s 38 commercial and merchant banks had already met the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) new capital thresholds, mobilizing an estimated ₦2.5 trillion. Verghis argued that these bolstered capital buffers are essential for restoring credit intermediation, especially as interest rates are expected to moderate throughout 2026.
As returns on government bonds decline, banks will be incentivized to expand lending to small, medium, and large enterprises, which remain the primary drivers of employment and productivity.
Structural Reforms and Inclusive Growth
The World Bank official also linked the sector’s potential to a broader suite of structural reforms, including the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 and foreign exchange market harmonization. These measures are expected to improve investor sentiment and help bring inflation down to single digits, further protecting the purchasing power of Nigerians.
However, the bank cautioned that 4.4% growth—while respectable on paper—is merely a “platform” and not a destination. For the growth to be inclusive, the banking sector must prioritize lending to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which account for roughly 97% of businesses in the country.
As the recapitalization deadline approaches, industry leaders, including Access Bank CEO Roosevelt Ogbonna, have echoed the World Bank’s optimism, stating that a more resilient financial system will be better positioned to fund critical public infrastructure and boost consumer activity. While the 7% target remains an “ambitious” figure compared to current projections, the World Bank maintains that with a productive private sector and consistent policy implementation, Nigeria’s “tomorrow will be better than today.”
 beyond a 7% expansion. Speaking at the Agusto & Co. 2026 Economic Roundtable in Lagos on February 12, 2026, World Bank Country Director Matthew Verghis noted that while the official forecast for Nigeria currently sits at a decade-high of 4.4%, the ambition must be scaled to 7% or 8% to meaningfully transform the lives of citizens.){kind=link}