United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc was the only Tier-1 lender to post gains in the equity market last week, bucking the negative trend on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) with a price appreciation that lifted its market value to nearly N2 trillion.
UBA shareholders’ portfolio value rose by about N33 billion, making it the lone gainer among Tier-1 banks. With a 41% year-to-date (YTD) return, the Pan-African lender has attracted strong investor interest amid fading bargain hunting and a lack of fresh catalysts to sustain broader market rallies.
UBA’s performance has outpaced the NGX All-Share Index, which closed last week with a 36.31% YTD return. At the end of trading, the bank’s market capitalization stood at N1.996 trillion on 41.039 billion outstanding shares. The share price rose by about 2% during the week, helping ease overall losses on the banking index.
According to NGX data, UBA’s share price closed at N48.65 on Friday, with 7.852 million units worth N382.03 million traded. Trading volume was driven largely by profit-taking from sell-side participants ahead of the bank’s half-year earnings release. The stock peaked at N49.50 midweek before easing slightly, but still added N32.83 billion to its market value on a week-on-week basis.
Analysts’ Expectations and Recommendations
Equity analysts maintain differing views on UBA’s earnings outlook and valuation:
- Cowry Asset Management Limited is the most bullish, setting a price target of N74.30 and issuing a buy rating ahead of the bank’s half-year 2025 earnings release.
- Alpha Morgan Capital Limited placed a target price of N67.20, implying further upside from current levels.
- Apel Asset Limited acknowledged UBA’s 41.03% YTD return but projected a more conservative price target of N52.92, just above its 52-week high of N50.55.
- Atlass Portfolio Limited also set a cautious target at N52.50, assigning a hold/neutral recommendation due to limited upside potential of 9.49% from a reference price of N47.95.
- Afrinvest Securities Limited issued a buy rating with a target price of N63.13, reflecting an expected upside of about 32% from the same reference price.
Analysts believe that an interim dividend announcement alongside UBA’s half-year earnings could provide fresh momentum, supporting further upside in the months ahead.
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