By Boluwatife Oshadiya | March 9, 2026
Key Points
- Brent crude jumps 15–16% to trade above $107 per barrel amid severe supply fears
- Iraq slashes output by nearly 60–70% to around 1.3 million barrels per day due to export blockages
- Disruptions widen as Kuwait and UAE join production cuts, with Hormuz tanker traffic near standstill
Main Story
Global oil benchmarks surged sharply on Monday as the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continued to throttle shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for about 20% of world oil trade. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed more than 15% to trade around $107–$108 per barrel (with intraday peaks nearing $119), up from Friday’s close near $92.69. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, rose similarly to over $104.
The spike follows last week’s already dramatic rally, with Brent gaining about 28%, its steepest weekly rise since early 2020. Markets are reacting to confirmed disruptions: Iranian attacks on vessels and threats have effectively halted tanker traffic through the Strait, forcing Gulf producers to curtail output as storage tanks fill.
Iraq, a major OPEC producer, has seen the most acute impact. Production from its southern fields has plunged by 60–70% to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, down from around 4.3 million before the conflict intensified. “Production has dropped by nearly 60%, now at about 1.3 million barrels per day, down from approximately 3.3 million before the outbreak of war,” said Kazem Abdul Hassan Karim, Assistant Director General, Department of Fields and Licensing Affairs, Iraqi Oil Ministry.
Additional incidents include a drone attack on the Burjesia oil area near Basra (causing warehouse damage but sparing production fields) and Saudi defenses intercepting drones targeting facilities like Shaybah.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warned of further escalation. “If the war continues in this way, there will be no path left for selling oil or producing it,” he said on X.
U.S. President Donald Trump, in recent comments, indicated decisions on ending strikes would involve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with no fixed timeline. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt previously projected the conflict lasting four to six weeks.
What’s Being Said
Market participants and officials express growing alarm over supply risks. Analysts note the conflict has already triggered the largest near-term disruption fears since 2022. Independent energy experts warn prolonged Hormuz issues could push prices higher if exports remain blocked.
What’s Next
- OPEC+ ministers may discuss emergency responses in coming days, though no formal meeting is scheduled yet.
- U.S. Navy escorts for tankers could be deployed soon to reopen Hormuz lanes.
- Further production adjustments expected from Kuwait, UAE, and possibly Saudi Arabia if storage constraints persist beyond the next 1–2 weeks.
The Bottom Line: The Bottom Line: This conflict-driven supply shock has rapidly shifted oil markets into a high-price regime, diverging from earlier 2026 forecasts and raising inflation risks for import-dependent economies like Nigeria, while testing global energy security amid fragile post-pandemic recovery.
