Nigeria’s telecommunications sector opened 2025 with mixed signals as active voice and internet subscriptions declined sharply year-on-year, despite modest quarter-on-quarter recovery, according to newly released industry data compiled from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Voice Subscriptions Drop 21.25% Year-on-Year
The total number of active voice subscribers in Q1 2025 stood at 172,708,410, compared to 219,304,281 recorded in Q1 2024, representing a 21.25% year-on-year decline. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the industry recorded a 4.72% increase, indicating partial stabilization after prior contractions. The scale of the annual drop signals structural adjustments in subscriber verification, SIM consolidation, and market rationalization across operators.
Internet Subscriptions Also Contract
Active internet subscriptions followed a similar trajectory. In Q1 2025, total active internet subscribers stood at 142,053,537, down from 164,368,292 recorded in Q1 2024, representing a 13.58% year-on-year decline. Quarter-on-quarter growth, however, rose by 1.99%, suggesting gradual recovery momentum. The contraction in internet subscriptions is particularly significant for Nigeria’s digital economy ambitions, as broadband penetration remains a key driver of fintech expansion, e-commerce growth and digital public services.
Lagos Retains Dominance in Subscriber Base
State-level analysis shows strong geographic concentration in telecom penetration.
For voice subscriptions in Q1 2025:
- Lagos recorded the highest number at 20,796,495
- Kano followed with 10,842,403
- Ogun ranked third with 9,524,744
- Bayelsa recorded the lowest at 1,150,399
- Ebonyi and Ekiti followed with 1,651,389 and 1,686,382 respectively
For internet subscriptions:
- Lagos again led with 17,631,480
- Kano recorded 8,783,669
- Ogun posted 8,263,023
- Bayelsa remained lowest at 974,573
- Ebonyi and Ekiti followed at 1,309,085 and 1,445,633 respectively
The data underscores Lagos’ continued dominance as Nigeria’s digital capital, reflecting population density, economic activity, fintech clustering and broadband infrastructure concentration.
Market Structure
The report confirms that MTN Nigeria had the highest share of subscriptions in Q1 2025, reinforcing its market leadership position. The operator’s dominance remains central to Nigeria’s telecom stability, given its scale across voice, data and enterprise solutions.
Strategic Implications
The Q1 figures reveal three structural trends:
- Subscriber Rationalization: The steep year-on-year decline suggests SIM cleanup effects and subscriber base recalibration.
- Urban Concentration: Digital penetration remains heavily skewed toward Lagos and major commercial hubs.
- Gradual Recovery: Quarter-on-quarter improvements indicate stabilization rather than systemic collapse.
For policymakers, the data reinforces the urgency of broadband expansion into underserved regions, while for operators, sustaining data monetization amid subscriber volatility will remain a key revenue challenge.
