Key points
- Headline inflation climbs to 15.38% in March 2026 from 15.06% in February.
- Month-on-month inflation surges to 4.18%, signalling accelerating short-term price pressures.
- Rising global oil prices and domestic cost factors continue to drive inflation dynamics.
Main story
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, marking a 0.32 percentage point increase from the 15.06 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The data highlights renewed upward pressure on prices, with both monthly and annual indicators pointing to increasing costs across the economy.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose sharply to 4.18 per cent in March, compared to 2.01 per cent in February, indicating a faster pace of price increases within a short period.
The 12-month average inflation rate also climbed to 20.05 per cent, up from 18.58 per cent recorded in March 2025, reflecting persistent underlying inflationary pressures.
A breakdown of the data shows that rural inflation remained higher at 17.22 per cent year-on-year, compared to urban inflation at 14.64 per cent, underscoring disparities in price movements across regions.
The issues
The rise in inflation comes amid a combination of domestic and global pressures.
Internationally, geopolitical tensions—particularly in the Middle East and around critical oil routes such as the Strait of Hormuz—have pushed crude oil prices higher, increasing global inflation risks.
For Nigeria, higher oil prices often translate into increased fuel and transportation costs, which feed into broader price levels.
Domestically, inflation continues to be driven by factors such as food supply constraints, exchange rate fluctuations, and structural inefficiencies in logistics and production.
What’s being said
The National Bureau of Statistics data indicates a mixed trend, with some easing in annual inflation figures but a sharp uptick in short-term price movements.
Food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year, significantly lower than 25.22 per cent recorded in March 2025, suggesting some moderation in annual food price pressures.
However, month-on-month food inflation remained elevated at 4.17 per cent, reflecting continued short-term volatility.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, rose to 16.21 per cent year-on-year, while its monthly rate jumped to 4.03 per cent from 0.89 per cent in February.
The data also showed a sharp divergence between urban and rural price trends, with rural month-on-month inflation surging to 6.73 per cent, compared to 3.16 per cent in urban areas.
What’s next
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had earlier projected that inflation would moderate to an average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by easing food prices and lower fuel costs.
However, the latest data suggests that short-term pressures may complicate that outlook.
Analysts expect policymakers to closely monitor inflation trends, particularly the impact of global oil price movements and domestic supply constraints on price stability.
Bottom line
While Nigeria’s inflation shows signs of easing on a year-on-year basis, the sharp rise in monthly figures signals renewed pressure on households and businesses. Sustained policy efforts and stable global conditions will be critical to achieving lasting price stability.
