Keypoints
- The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has released its January 2026 Commercial Performance Factsheet, revealing a total revenue collection of ₦204.74bn.
- Overall Collection Efficiency stood at 76.34%, a slight decline of 2.07% compared to December 2025, while Billing Efficiency was recorded at 79.72%.
- NERC has officially lowered the ATC&C (Aggregate Technical, Commercial, and Collection) loss targets to an average of 16.92% for 2026, reflecting the impact of DisCo investments made throughout 2025.
- Eko DisCo emerged as the top performer in revenue recovery efficiency at 87.92%, while Kaduna DisCo lagged significantly at 36.29%.
Main Story
The Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) started 2026 with a push toward tighter financial discipline, according to the latest data from the sector regulator.
The January 2026 Commercial Performance Factsheet shows that while the industry received energy worth ₦336.43bn, only ₦204.74bn was successfully collected in revenue. This 69.16% average recovery efficiency highlights the persistent gap between energy supplied and cash collected across the 11 Distribution Companies (DisCos).
A major highlight of the report is the implementation of new, more aggressive ATC&C loss targets. To reflect the network upgrades and metering investments made by DisCos in 2025, NERC has reduced the allowed loss targets from an average of 20.54% to 16.92%.
The most dramatic adjustment was seen in Yola DisCo, where the target was slashed by 15 percentage points.
These targets are critical because they determine the “allowed tariff” and the level of revenue DisCos are permitted to retain, placing immense pressure on poorly performing operators to modernize their collection systems.
The Issues
The primary challenge remains the severe “liquidity squeeze” caused by high commercial losses. While Eko and Ikeja DisCos are nearing the 80-90% recovery efficiency mark, others like Jos (43.54%) and Kaduna (36.29%) are in a “red zone,” recovering less than half of the value of the energy they receive. This disparity is often attributed to high rates of energy theft, bypass of meters, and the lack of a fully “cost-reflective” tariff in certain regions. Furthermore, the 2.07% drop in collection efficiency from December suggests that post-holiday seasonal spending may be affecting consumer payment habits.
What’s Being Said
- “The Commission approved reduced targets for 2026 to reflect the expected impact of DisCo investments made in 2025,” NERC Nigeria stated via its official social media handle.
- Energy analysts have noted that the “variance” in recovery efficiency between 2025 and 2026 is largely due to the application of these tougher ATC&C targets.
- Eko DisCo continues to lead the pack, with its actual collection per kWh (₦110.60) coming closest to the allowed average tariff.
- Consumer advocacy groups argue that while DisCos are being pushed for efficiency, “billing transparency” must improve to justify the collection drives.
What’s Next
- DisCos in the “red zone” (Kaduna, Jos, Kano) will likely face increased regulatory scrutiny and may be forced to accelerate their metering rollout to hit the new 16.92% loss target.
- Market participants will be watching the February and March numbers to see if the January “dip” in efficiency was a temporary seasonal trend or a sign of deeper consumer resistance to current tariff levels.
- NERC is expected to continue its “Performance Monitoring” visits to ensure that the 2025 investments cited as the reason for lower loss targets are actually functioning on the ground.
Bottom Line
The 2026 Factsheet serves as a wake-up call for the power sector: with tighter loss targets now in effect, DisCos can no longer rely on regulatory cushions. For the Nigerian electricity market to remain solvent, the industry must bridge the ₦130bn monthly gap between “energy received” and “revenue collected.”
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