KEY POINTS
- Headline inflation in Nigeria saw a marginal decline to 15.06% in February 2026, down from 15.10% in January, according to the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report.
- Despite the annual dip, month-on-month inflation rose to 2.01%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain entrenched.
- Food prices reversed a downward trend, jumping to 12.12% in February from 8.89% in January, driven by costs for staples like beans, yam flour, and tubers.
- Dr. Chinyere Almona, Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), cautioned that current progress is “fragile” and vulnerable to global oil price volatility and Middle East tensions.
MAIN STORY
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Federal Government to maintain aggressive policy interventions following a slight cooling in Nigeria’s headline inflation. While the annual rate dropped to 15.06%, marking the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year decline the Chamber pointed to a worrying 2.01% increase in month-on-month momentum as proof that the battle against rising costs is far from won.
Dr. Chinyere Almona, speaking in Lagos on Tuesday, emphasized that the current “fragile grip” on price stability is being threatened by structural inefficiencies. She identified insecurity in farming regions and high logistics costs as the primary engines behind the sudden 12.12% spike in food inflation.
These domestic hurdles are being compounded by external risks, specifically the threat of rising global oil prices due to ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
The Chamber highlighted that any surge in global energy costs would immediately translate into higher local transport and production expenses. To hedge against these risks, the LCCI is advocating for a shift toward “supply-side” interventions. This includes targeted investments in agricultural storage systems to reduce post-harvest losses and accelerated reforms in the power sector to lower the reliance on expensive diesel and petrol generators for manufacturing.
Furthermore, exchange-rate instability remains a top priority for the organized private sector. Dr. Almona called for improved foreign exchange liquidity and a focus on non-oil export earnings to stabilize the Naira. The LCCI maintains that without these structural fixes, the recent “disinflationary signal” will remain a temporary trend rather than a permanent shift toward economic stability.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
- “The current inflation trajectory reflects a fragile grip on price stability,” stated Dr. Chinyere Almona.
- “Food inflation continues to dominate, driven by structural inefficiencies in the supply chain and insecurity,” Almona added.
- “Reforms are only as good as the paper on which they are written… what is important is the diligent execution,” noted Minister Taiwo Oyedele in a separate economic briefing
WHAT’S NEXT
- The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to monitor these figures closely ahead of its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to determine if further interest rate adjustments are needed.
- Targeted government inspections of food supply chains may be initiated to identify and remove bottlenecks in the distribution of staples like grains and tubers.
- Market analysts will be watching the global Brent crude prices, currently hovering around $103 per barrel, as further increases could trigger domestic fuel price adjustments in April.
BOTTOM LINE
The Bottom Line is that disinflation is not yet price stability. While the headline numbers look positive on the surface, the sharp rise in month-on-month food costs and global energy risks mean that Nigerian businesses and households are still in a high-pressure environment. For the trend to become permanent, the government must move past currency management and address the root causes of high food and energy costs.
