Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics appear to be shifting as oil marketers confirm that petrol supplies are increasingly being sourced from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with claims that fresh imports have significantly reduced or stopped altogether.
Independent marketers say the domestic supply chain has stabilised in recent weeks, with Dangote Refinery emerging as the primary source of petrol currently circulating in the Nigerian market. However, some operators insist that fuel importation has not completely ended, arguing that domestic refining capacity is still insufficient to meet national demand consistently.
Marketers Report Stable Supply and Falling Prices
Speaking in an interview, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said independent marketers are experiencing steady product availability and declining prices, with no signs of scarcity.
Ukadike noted that, based on current market realities, he does not believe petrol is being imported at this time, stressing that supplies are coming directly from the Dangote Refinery. According to him, the absence of shortages during the high-demand Christmas period supports claims that local refining is currently meeting market needs.
He explained that recent price reductions by the refinery, coupled with uninterrupted supply, have helped stabilise the downstream sector and neutralise long-standing debates over import dependence.
Ukadike also highlighted that Dangote Refinery has opened direct access to independent marketers, reducing bottlenecks associated with multi-layered distribution channels.
Earlier Import Surge Sparks Debate
Concerns over fuel importation resurfaced in November 2025 following reports that petrol imports surged amid claims that a supply arrangement between Dangote Refinery and 20 major marketers had collapsed.
Under that pilot arrangement, the parties had agreed to offtake about 600 million litres of petrol monthly as part of efforts to stabilise domestic supply and curb rising pump prices. Reports suggested that disagreements over pricing led to a breakdown of the arrangement, triggering renewed imports.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that petrol imports rose sharply to 1.563 billion litres in November 2025, compared to 828 million litres in October of the same year.
Dangote Refinery Rejects Import Claims
Dangote Petroleum Refinery strongly rejected suggestions that the import surge was linked to a collapse in its supply agreements with marketers, describing such reports as inaccurate and misleading.
The refinery stated that no offtake agreement had broken down and explained that its engagement with the downstream market was intentionally structured to respond to rising demand while promoting access, efficiency, and competition.
Independent marketers also distanced themselves from claims that the November import figures reflected a failure of Dangote’s supply framework, noting that product availability across the country had improved significantly since the refinery commenced petrol supply.
Direct Supply Model Gains Traction
Ukadike confirmed that independent marketers are now lifting products directly from the Dangote Refinery, bypassing the traditional three-tier distribution system. He explained that while the refinery has reduced individual loading volumes from 500,000 litres to 250,000 litres, marketers can collaborate to pool resources and secure supplies more quickly, improving efficiency and access.
Expectations of Further Price Reductions
IPMAN said marketers are encouraged by the transparency Dangote Refinery has introduced into the market and expect further price reductions as operations continue to stabilise.
Ukadike noted that local refining significantly reduces transportation and logistics costs, which should ultimately reflect in lower pump prices nationwide. He added that the refinery’s direct supply policy is already delivering tangible benefits to independent marketers.
Contrasting View: Imports Still Necessary
Not all marketers share the view that petrol imports have stopped entirely. Retail oil marketer Edwin Ogah argued that importation continues, primarily as a strategy for stock security rather than excess dumping.
According to Ogah, imported volumes can sometimes exceed immediate consumption because marketers build inventory buffers to prevent shortages. He said Nigeria still relies heavily on imports due to gaps in domestic refining capacity.
Ogah acknowledged that while local refining is improving, it has yet to reach the scale, consistency, and nationwide distribution required to fully eliminate imports. He added that factors such as foreign exchange availability, port congestion, pipeline challenges, and trucking costs continue to influence supply stability.
Dangote Refinery Reaffirms Capacity
In a related update, Dangote Refinery recently dismissed reports suggesting it was shutting down for maintenance, affirming that operations remain uninterrupted and that the facility continues to supply over 50 million litres of petrol daily. The 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery described the reports as false and aimed at creating panic in the downstream market, reiterating its role as a stabilising force amid fuel price volatility.
In December 2025, the refinery formally communicated its readiness to fully meet Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand, pledging to supply up to 1.5 billion litres monthly from that period.
