Central Bank of Nigeria trims the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.50%; EBC Financial Group says the key risk is whether disinflation and currency stability hold as domestic transmission meets a still-sensitive global USD-rate and oil backdrop.
EBC Financial Group (“EBC”) says Nigeria’s first easing step since November reframes the market’s focus from the size of the cut to the conditions that must stay intact for it to endure. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50% following its 23–24 February 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) meeting, with policymakers signalling continued disinflation and balanced risks.
“Cutting cautiously is the easy part. The harder task is keeping inflation, liquidity and currency dynamics moving in the same direction,” said David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer, EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd. “For investors, the signal is not simply that rates are lower, but that the bar for further easing will be set by transmission and FX stability, especially with global USD funding conditions still capable of repricing quickly.”
Risk Frame for Nigeria’s Easing Cycle and FX Stability
EBC’s risk frame is centred on whether the easing narrative remains credible without reintroducing pressure through the liquidity and currency channels.
First is transmission: how changes in the policy stance filter through to effective funding conditions when liquidity management remains a binding constraint. Second is currency stability: whether FX conditions stay orderly enough to reinforce disinflation and confidence in the policy path. Third is the external constraint: oil-sensitive cashflows and global USD-rate expectations, which can reset frontier risk premia even when domestic inflation trends are improving.
Policy and Inflation Backdrop Behind the Rate Cut
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.10% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 15.15% previously, extending a run of monthly declines cited around the decision. Operational parameters referenced in the post-meeting briefing included retaining a 30% liquidity ratio and keeping the standing facilities corridor at +50/–450 basis points around the MPR.
Market Impact on FX Pricing and Rate Expectations
EBC notes that a modest first cut can still be consequential because it resets expectations for the reaction function: markets tend to focus on what would force a pause, rather than what justifies the next cut. In Nigeria’s case, that shifts attention to how quickly financial conditions respond and whether FX stability remains a sufficiently strong anchor as the stance becomes marginally less restrictive.
What Could Move the Narrative Next
EBC expects the next leg to be shaped less by commentary and more by outcomes: inflation prints that confirm breadth of disinflation, evidence of orderly FX conditions, and the degree to which global USD-rate expectations tighten or loosen financial conditions for frontier risk. Scheduled policy windows in the coming months, including Nigeria’s next MPC meeting, as well as key global central-bank and oil-market decision points, are likely to amplify any mismatch between domestic transmission and the external backdrop.
“Markets will look for consistency between the inflation prints, FX price action and the liquidity story,” Barrett added. “If the external backdrop stays supportive, the MPC may be able to proceed gradually; if it does not, transmission and currency stability become the binding constraints again.”
