The Federal Government has exceeded its revenue target by N88.73 billion for the first half of 2025, driven largely by a surge in electronic transactions. The data is from the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework released by the Budget Office.
Based on a full-year EMTL revenue projection of N230 billion, the half-year target of N134.17 billion surged to N222.90 billion, representing a 66.1 percent outperformance. Corporate Income Tax collections of N5.86 trillion slightly exceeded the prorated target of N5.44 trillion, a 7.6 percent overperformance. Value-Added Tax receipts also surpassed expectations, reaching N4.82 trillion, N439.22 billion above the half-year target.
Despite these gains, net non-oil revenue, including solid minerals, totalled N12.14 trillion by June 2025, falling short of projections by N1.81 trillion, or 13 percent. The shortfall highlights ongoing challenges in tax collection and economic activity outside the oil sector.
Oil and gas revenue underperformed significantly. Gross receipts were projected at N51.04 trillion for 2025, but by July only N11.17 trillion had been realised, a performance rate of just 37.5 percent. After statutory deductions, net inflows to the Federation Account stood at N9.61 trillion, N15.78 trillion below the half-year target. Weak crude production, price volatility, and limited refining margins contributed to the shortfall, increasing pressure on non-oil revenue to fill the gap.
The strong performance of the EMTL line reflects the growing adoption of digital financial services in Nigeria. Electronic transactions through mobile money, bank transfers, and other channels have deepened, with the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System reporting N284.9 trillion spent electronically in the first quarter of 2025. This represents a 22 percent increase from N234.4 trillion recorded in Q1 2024.
The NIBSS Instant Payment platform, launched in 2011, enables real-time interbank transactions across multiple electronic channels including internet banking, mobile apps, USSD, POS, and ATMs. The surge in digital payments has helped the government exceed its non-oil revenue target despite weak oil earnings.
