• OPEC pegs June output at 1.547m barrels/day
• Bonny Light trades at $69, below $75 benchmark
There are renewed concerns over the implementation of Nigeria’s N54.99 trillion 2025 budget, following a fresh disclosure by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that the country has once again fallen short of its crude oil production target.
According to OPEC’s July 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) stood at 1.547 million barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025, based on data from secondary sources. This represents a marginal increase of 1.24 per cent from 1.528 million bpd recorded in May 2025.
However, when direct communications from Nigeria were considered, OPEC noted a slightly lower figure of 1.505 million bpd for June, up from 1.453 million bpd in the preceding month.
These figures remain significantly below the Federal Government’s 2025 budget assumption of 2.06 million bpd, raising questions about the viability of the fiscal plan.
In a further blow to the budget’s assumptions, Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude hovered at $69 per barrel on Tuesday — $6 short of the $75 benchmark price set in the budget. Combined with the official exchange rate of N1,500/$, these variances pose a considerable threat to revenue projections and fiscal stability.
Speaking to Vanguard on the implications, Professor Wumi Iledare, Emeritus Professor of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, said the budget was built on unrealistic expectations.
“I recall clearly expressing concern that the budget assumptions bordered on daydreaming,” he said. “The key variables—production volume, oil price, and costs—are highly volatile. This situation exposes the fragility of our budgeting process, which needs serious reform.”
Echoing similar sentiments, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), Mazi Colman Obasi, called for a rethink of national investment priorities.
“Nigeria is at a critical juncture. We continue to invest in non-essential programmes instead of channelling resources into sectors that drive long-term economic growth,” Obasi said. “We must maximise oil and gas earnings and strategically reinvest them to diversify the economy. Ultimately, Nigeria should work towards reducing its over-reliance on hydrocarbons.”
The latest production figures and price fluctuations underscore the pressing need for structural reforms and realistic economic planning, as the nation navigates volatile oil market dynamics and revenue shortfalls.
