Oil is projected to remain the world’s dominant energy source by 2050, holding a 29.8% share of the global energy mix, according to OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook 2050 report. The report highlights that rising population, economic growth, energy policy shifts, and technological advancements continue to drive global energy demand, despite record renewable energy additions of nearly 600 gigawatts last year.
However, the expansion of renewables has not fully offset rising energy needs, leading to continued strong demand for oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy. By 2050, global primary energy demand is expected to rise by 23% compared to last year, reaching 378 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with nearly all growth coming from non-OECD countries.
During this period, demand for all primary energy sources except coal is set to increase. Renewable energy demand is projected to rise by 52 million boepd to 99.4 million boepd, driven by policy incentives and falling production costs, while nuclear energy is expected to grow by 10 million boepd to 24.9 million boepd.
Oil demand is forecast to rise by 18.2 million boepd to 112.4 million boepd by 2050, while natural gas demand is projected to increase by 19.7 million boepd to 89.7 million boepd. In contrast, coal demand is expected to decline by 30.4 million boepd to 51.4 million boepd due to climate policies and the growth of cleaner alternatives.
By 2050, oil is expected to retain the largest share of the energy mix at 29.8%, followed by renewables (including hydropower and biomass) at 26.3%, natural gas at 23.7%, coal at 13.6%, and nuclear at 6.6%.
OPEC notes that despite rapid growth in renewables, oil and natural gas will continue to provide over half of the world’s energy needs for decades, reflecting the continued importance of fossil fuels in meeting global energy demand while transitioning to lower-carbon sources.
