Global oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon ease monetary policy. The rally was further supported by the cautious output strategy adopted by OPEC+ members and extended Western sanctions on Russian crude exports.
Geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have continued to heighten concerns over supply disruptions, adding a layer of uncertainty to global oil markets in 2025. Analysts say that OPEC+’s measured approach to production and tightening global conditions have created a delicate balance between supply risks and sluggish demand.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Brent crude traded at $65.88 per barrel, a 0.5% increase from the previous day’s close of $65.55. Similarly, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.5% to $62.03 from $61.74 in the previous session.
The price surge comes after OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed during their October 5 virtual meeting to increase collective output by 137,000 barrels per day in November — a move analysts described as a “strategic moderation” designed to preserve market stability.
Industry experts say this decision reassured investors about OPEC+’s commitment to avoiding an oversupply scenario while maintaining gradual control over output. “The group is walking a tightrope — ensuring prices remain sustainable without derailing global recovery,” said an energy strategist based in London.
The momentum in oil markets also gained from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could adopt a dovish stance after weaker private-sector employment data reinforced hopes for rate cuts later in the year. Economists argue that lower interest rates would stimulate growth, particularly in energy-dependent industries, which could in turn fuel higher oil demand.
However, the bullish sentiment was tempered by data showing an unexpected build-up in U.S. crude inventories. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that commercial crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels last week, signaling potential demand weakness.
Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected later on Wednesday and could offer further insight into supply and demand trends. Despite these headwinds, analysts believe the market will remain supported in the short term, as investors weigh policy signals from central banks against geopolitical risks.
“As long as macroeconomic optimism and supply discipline persist, oil will likely stay above key support levels,” said a senior commodities analyst at GlobalData.
