The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) says the country is on course to hit a crude oil production target of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2026. NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, disclosed this on Thursday in Abuja at the 4th PENGASSAN and Labour Summit (PEALS 2025), themed “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investment and Incremental Production.”
Komolafe noted that production has risen from 1.46mbpd in October 2024 to 1.8mbpd, with momentum building toward the 2026 benchmark. He attributed the gains to recent presidential executive orders under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which have shortened contracting cycles, reduced investment risks, and encouraged new upstream projects.
According to him, NUPRC is driving deepwater exploration, reactivating dormant fields, and deploying enhanced recovery techniques. A recent Deepwater Technical Stakeholders’ Workshop, he added, identified more than 810,000bpd in new production potential.
The regulator is also pursuing a cluster development strategy to cut costs, optimise shared infrastructure, and boost investor confidence. On sustainability, Komolafe said the Upstream Decarbonisation Framework aims to end routine gas flaring by 2030 and cut methane emissions by 60% by 2031. He stressed that Nigeria’s 210 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves will be critical to the energy transition.
ExxonMobil’s Managing Director, Jagie Baxi, speaking at the summit, identified four key factors for boosting output: geology, cost, risk, and reward. He cautioned that despite Nigeria’s vast resources, natural production decline—especially in deepwater fields—remains a concern, with operators losing about 15% of output annually.
Baxi also flagged high drilling and operational costs as a deterrent to new investments and called for risk-adjusted incentives, better collaboration among stakeholders, and revival of underperforming assets to sustain production growth.
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